2023-24 Preseason Power Rankings and Postseason Predictions
Can’t wait for this to remain unchanged for an entire season.
Photo Credit: Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images for NLL
Rosters are appropriately slimmed down for the 2023-24 NLL regular season, got them winter bodies, but this Power Rankings has been fleshed out for a week or two at this point.
The bones for most teams are pretty much assembled when training camps start. November is for adding some more muscle and flesh to the skeleton, trim the fat where possible. While it may seem presumptuous to predict a roster this far out before cuts are made, how many surprising cuts have there been this week? The bigger short-term story so far is how many key contributors are starting the season hurt.
I think of rankings of any type as exercises in futility, humility, self-flagellation, and imperfection, but they’re simple enough for anyone to understand and good for generating conversation. That conversation can be a bit knee-jerky, though, so let’s go over some rules I use to guide my decision-making for rankings:
An NLL season is a marathon, not a race. Placement is based on what teams show over a period of time. Just because a team completely revamped their roster in the offseason or beat a team that was above them in the rankings one week doesn’t mean they automatically jump up spots.
Records are not what I base rankings on. If a team wins 14 games to start the season and then drops the next four badly, then that recent performance will weigh more than them having the best record that season.
This is supposed to be fun. I take this mildly seriously, but it’s just, like, my opinion, man. It’s not worth getting worked up over.
For the inaugural Power Rankings of TyMerLacrosse.com, I’ll put the team’s record last season, standings when conferences were still a thing, and how I had them ranked for the final Lacrosse Flash Power Rankings.
I’ve also hazarded a guess as to how the playoffs form up, shake out, and crown the best team in the league.
Let’s jump into it.
15. Albany FireWolves
Last season: 3-15, last in the Eastern Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 15
They were bad, unhealthy, and unlucky in 2022-23. While there’s plenty of optimism around the young offensive weapons they have, the absence of Kieran McArdle, retirement of captain Brett Manney, and departure of John LaFontaine in free agency are blows to the roster.
If Doug Jamieson is anything close to his GotY winning season, then this team will be contentious whenever they’re on the floor. With reinforcements in Joe Nardella and Charlie Kitchen (unless his Holdout List placement becomes more of an issue), along with a completely revamped if undersized offense, the only way to go for the FireWolves is up.
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs
Last season: 5-13, sixth in the Western Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 12
An entertaining first season under their belt, the Desert Dogs can continue to take steps forward, but temper expectations with the early pains that come from being a new team still in its infancy. Not every expansion club in year two of existence can be the Seals. Or PCLC. Or the Wings…is the rule about expansions being bad their first couple of years a myth? Knighthawks were good in their third season. Riptide are the only ones that haven’t figured it out completely yet. Hmm.
Point being, I’m expecting a competitive team and absolutely fun core to watch, but I’d be surprised if the Desert Dogs finished above 12th in league standings at the end of April.
13. Vancouver Warriors
Last season: 4-14, last in the Western Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 14
This is a prime example of tempering excitement for a team even though they arguably won the offseason, and I will not be shocked if their ranking loses that “1” before April’s here. Bringing in Curt Malawsky as the new GM and head coach alone was a coup, but the defensive shoring he attracted to Vancouver is insane, just a wealth of physicality, athleticism, and brains that any NLL team would kill to have. They’ll make their goaltending look good.
And that’s honestly where this is hung up — I’m not sold on Vancouver’s goaltending. Going back to Aaron Bold as the primary netminder at this stage in his career shows how hard it is to acquire or develop goaltending at the NLL level. Expecting him to have a renaissance season at 38 is unreasonable.
12. New York Riptide
Last season: 5-13, seventh in the Eastern Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 13
The Riptide are why I temper preseason excitement. I was close to sipping the kool aid on them ahead of 2022-23 before putting them just outside a playoff spot, which in retrospect was generous. Another season of questionable goaltending and an offense that struggled outside of Teat have the Riptide as the worst performing expansion club in recent history. Until they show differently, I’m not really ready to rank them higher.
Credit where it’s due; GM Rich Lisk did not rest on his laurels this offseason, and the new faces he brought in on paper bolster the club and its fortunes, just as they skew the average age of the team higher. If that promise translates onto the floor in 2024, look out.
11. Saskatchewan Rush
Last season: 8-10, fifth in the Western Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 11
I’m honestly not sure what to make of the Rush. They’re similar to the FireWolves a bit — few remaining veterans on the team from better days, but with a great young core that’s going to be dynamite in a few seasons.
The two newest names are the ones I’m most curious about: forward Patrick Dodds and goalie Frank Scigliano, both acquired via trade. Dodds is closer to home. If not flying to Fort Worth gets his numbers closer to his rookie season, that’s a good thing for him and the Rush. Scigliano’s also coming off a rough year. We’ve seen him be incredible through most of a season before the wheels fall off, and 2023-24 is the opportunity to end that narrative about his game. If he can buck it, then it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Rush in the postseason.
10. Georgia Swarm
Last season: 8-10, sixth in the Eastern Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 9
I’m the closest NLL media member for this team that also used to work for them, so I admit to having some rose-colored glasses on when I look at the Swarm. They’re also a great example of how it’s important how you end a season, not begin, although their laborious start certainly undercut their strong finish.
With a lot of their core returning and the keys turned over to goalie Brett Dobson, the Swarm are in a prime position to surprise some folks in 2024, or at least surprise folks that don’t pay attention to the consistency that is the Swarm roster.
9. Rochester Knighthawks
Last season: 10-8, fourth in the Eastern Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 8
The opposite of the Swarm, the Knighthawks got off to a blistering start in 2022-23 before the wheels wobbled mightily in the second half, a pair of wins against the Swarm their only victories through the last two months of the season.
I’ll be honest, I’m not too sure what to make of Rochester’s offseason. Out of every NLL team, I’d argue they didn’t really get better, coin flip if they make the postseason or not. Some baffling trades and loss of defenders are balanced by the debut of Thomas McConvey and other offseason signings. There’s plenty to love on their offense and between the pipes in Rylan Hartley, but arguably 12 other teams improved across the board. I’m not sure the Knighthawks did.
8. Philadelphia Wings
Last season: 9-9, fifth in the Eastern Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 10
Two seasons of finishing .500 under their belt, the Wings improved by subtraction. Trading Trevor Baptiste and captain Kiel Matisz — the latter of which is the bigger loss — for Mike McCannell and Scott Dominey, surprisingly cutting veteran defender Alex Crepinsek, and moving Matt Rambo to the Holdout List cuts some excess and gets the defense younger and more mobile. The Wings are another team with a core that figured it out late last season, albeit too late in a competitive East Conference.
A full season of Mitch Jones, not enough love being shown for Zach Higgins between the pipes — I probably should rank the Wings higher, honestly. I do have them making the playoffs, but for now, I’m exercising restraint.
Photo Credit: Trevor MacMillan/Halifax Thunderbirds
7. Halifax Thunderbirds
Last season: 10-8, third in the Eastern Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 6
There’s a phenomenal core in the Maritimes, one that should weather losing Chris Boushy. That said, it’s hard to say this team improved, especially given the logjam that is the left side of their offense. Running back a relatively similar roster again again is dependent on an aging core finding another level at the right time of season, while also counting on them to stay healthy.
But their defense is a battalion of bruisers, and I’m legally not allowed to bet against an offense that has arguably the best playmaker in the NLL in Randy Staats. Will their faith in their time-tested weapons on both ends of the floor result in them finally figuring out how to get to the NLL semi-finals and maybe beyond?
6. Panther City LC
Last season: 10-8, third in the Western Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 7
I got burned pretty bad not trusting PCLC last season despite the metrics pointing out their flaws. Nick Damude is a bonafide wall in front of the mesh. Their offense is young and trimmer since the trade of Dodds to the Rush. And no team has as much of a dark horse for Transition Player of the Year like Panther City does in Josh Medeiros.
I would like for their 5-on-5 game to be better, as outrunning your settled issues can only take you so far. But I’m counting on the sophomore forwards to take a step forward with this hustling defense returning. Bet against Panther City at your own peril.
I’m going to be against Panther City at my own peril…
5. Colorado Mammoth
Last season: 9-9, fourth in the Western Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 5
No Ryan Lee? Worked last year. That’s a really simplistic (and honestly bad) way to look at this team that was 5-1 with Lee in the lineup and 4-8 with him out. They revamped their right side mightily to bolster his absence. It’s a prime example of not knowing what to expect until you see it in action, and the lefties will likely carry the load.
But last time I checked, Pat Coyle still coaches this team, and Dillon Ward still mans the pipes behind one of the most frustrating defenses to play against. If Ward’s healthy and the Mammoth get 10 wins off of 10 one-goal wins, no one will care how, they’ll just care how many.
4. Calgary Roughnecks
Last season: 13-5, second in the Western Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 15
Arguably suffering the biggest departure in the offseason with Malawsky heading to Vancouver, it’s not fair to assume the Roughnecks’ chances in 2023-24 are sunk. Reigning MVP and Goaltender of the Year Christian Del Bianco’s still between the pipes, as is most of their core across the floor. Adding Thomas Hoggarth to the right side of the offense is a steal.
Zach Currier, my pick for best lacrosse player active today, still wears black and grey, and he leads a defense boasting Eli Salama, Shane Simpson, and Jeff Cornwall. I can’t imagine new head coach and AGM Josh Sanderson is coming in and blowing up what led the Riggers to be surprisingly successful last season, and with Hoggarth bolstering that right side, Sanderson’s offense is going to be balanced as hell.
3. San Diego Seals
Last season: 14-4, first in the Western Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 1
This is going to be a bit more negative than should be reasonable for a team I’ve ranked third overall preseason.
The Seals had an impressive regular season in 2022-23, then an abrupt exit in the playoffs. Losing future NLL Hall of Fame Brodie Merrill hurts. Their righty O depth is thin, and there will be goaltending pains with Chris Origlieri taking his next steps forward in the NLL and veteran Mike Poulin backing him up.
If I was worried about the Warriors and their goaltending depth, then I’m also worried about the Seals and their goaltending depth. The two teams have the same issue — I like both offenses (Seals more), I love both defenses (Warriors more), but both netminding tandems feature young guys with older goalies backing or starting over them. This is such a goalie-driven league that having huge question marks at that position worries me.
2. Toronto Rock
Last season: 13-5, second in the Eastern Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 2
Losing reigning NLL Defender of the Year Latrell Harris is a tough pill to swallow. The defensive core, which gets to enjoy a healthy Chris Corbeil and Mitch de Snoo, is still strong in front of goalie Nick Rose. Adding Chris Boushy and Mark Matthews to an offense boasting Tom Schreiber and Corey Small is just unfair.
I thought they were the best team at the end of last season. I think they’re the best team ahead of this season, and they’re my unsexy pick to win the championship. Spoiler alert.
1. Buffalo Bandits
Last season: 14-4, first in the Eastern Conference
Merrow’s EOS ranking: 3
Champs with a returning core? Arguably the best forward in the game returning on a five-year deal? The best goaltender in NLL history (so far) that’s conquering Father Time?
I understand how battered and bruised their defensive corps is before a game’s even been played this season, but this offense is so damn good, the defense mainstays are so strong, and Matt Vinc is incredible enough that it overshadows how injured their back end is.
Who in their right mind would rank the Bandits lower preseason?
Final Standings and Postseason Predictions
Literally the thing I look least forward to ahead of every NLL season, I’m hazarding guesses at final standings and who wins the whole shebang. I’ve got final rosters and a makeshift strength of schedule made up to reference, all while relying on the idea that everyone’s healthy a whole season and everyone has fun.
Fun’s important, because honestly, I don’t believe in the final standings I’ve presented. I do believe in my pick to win everything, but an NLL season is filled with surprises good and bad, along with unfortunate injuries, sudden surges, and deflating collapses. If my predicted final rankings reflect anything surprising, it’s probably more because I like seeing different teams in the postseason, not the usual suspects. Ignore the fact that five of them were in the postseason last time.
One important thing to rehash here: I really place a lot of emphasis on goalie strength during the regular season; postseason, that emphasis becomes balance, as usually the more stacked team across the floor wins everything. So if I had questions about your goalie duo preseason, bet that I’m not placing too much confidence in you making the postseason.
Final Standings:
15. Las Vegas Desert Dogs
14. Albany FireWolves
13. Panther City LC
12. Saskatchewan Rush
11. Colorado Mammoth
10. Rochester Knighthawks
9. Vancouver Warriors
8. Halifax Thunderbirds
7. New York Riptide
6. Georgia Swarm
5. San Diego Seals
4. Philadelphia Wings
3. Calgary Roughnecks
2. Buffalo Bandits
1. Toronto Rock
Postseason Predictions (assuming playoff format remains the same):
Quarterfinals
Rock over Thunderbirds
Bandits over Riptide
Roughnecks over Swarm
Wings over Seals
Semifinals
Rock over Roughnecks
Bandits over Wings
Finals
Rock over Bandits
Sounds about right. Prepping the stomach to eat crow come June.
Photo Credit: Ryan McCullough/Toronto Rock