Who Stops the Bandits?
Which of the 13 NLL teams has the best shot at preventing Buffalo’s three-peat?
Photo Credit: Buffalo Bandits
I’ve been thinking a lot about the Buffalo Bandits. The 6-0 Buffalo Bandits. The two-time defending Buffalo Bandits, with their two MVP-caliber forwards, their perennial always-the-bridesmaid-never-the-bride Defensive Player of the Year captain, the best goaltender in National Lacrosse League history defying time, Ian MacKay, depth across the board with a floor higher than other teams’ ceilings.
How the hell do you stop the Dwarf in the Flask from turning all of Amestris into a Philosopher’s Stone? It’s going to take a collective of talented individuals making incredible sacrifices and withstanding Father’s onslaught to time out the soul energy within the ultimate homunculus, and I feel this metaphor quickly lost most of you — the Venn diagram overlap of NLL fans and manga nerds probably isn’t that large. Go read Fullmetal Alchemist.
Point being, it’s going to take a special, all-around team that can possibly dethrone the Bandits in May. While there’s still 11 weeks to go in the 2024-25 regular season and anything — injuries, the slump of all slumps, a constitutional crisis — can derail the Bandits down the stretch, that “anything” will have to be rather spectacular. If the Bandits have shown anything in their six games of action, they’re the spectacular.
Which of the 13 NLL teams has that mojo that can unseat a dynasty? And why are they the Colorado Mammoth and Saskatchewan Rush?
Photo Credit: Stephen Hiscock
Starting this rather objective exercise assumes all 13 remaining NLL teams have a fighting shot at making the playoffs; that will only be the reality for seven of them. Teams at the bottom can go on an almighty tear to force themselves back into the postseason picture, but let’s be honest, it takes a special group to go from an abysmal start to facing a dynasty in the NLL Finals — hi, 2018 Rochester Knighthawks, I’m talking about you.
The problems that have plagued the 2-6 (or -7) teams in the 2024-25 NLL season are persistent, and it’s difficult to imagine a path forward for the Albany FireWolves and Las Vegas Desert Dogs. Callous as it may seem, I’m dropping them from this exercise. There’s an NLL trade deadline on the horizon; please make it interesting.
Of the four teams currently on the outside of a playoff spot — Halifax Thunderbirds (3-4), Rochester Knighthawks (4-6), Toronto Rock (3-5), and San Diego Seals (3-5) — I’m more confident in the Rock cracking the top 8 than I am the other three. The Thunderbirds have been inconsistent in all of their games — hot offense, suspect defense/goaltending or settled game unsuccessful, so Ryan Terefenko puts the team on his back; the Knighthawks have an offense that can be the best in the league but hasn’t been, and their surprisingly stout defense has two solid or better starters between the net — that lack of consistency out the front door is what gives me pause on them; the Seals offense is paltry, it doesn’t make sense, and it doesn’t help that Chris Origlieri is having a rollercoaster season. Even with my confidence in the Rock, it doesn’t change the fact they’re historically bad against the Bandits, and their lefties have been very underwhelming this season.
The other seven teams currently atop the league standings — Calgary Roughnecks (4-3), Colorado Mammoth (5-4), Georgia Swarm (5-3), Ottawa Black Bears (4-4), Philadelphia Wings (5-3), Saskatchewan Rush (6-2), and Vancouver Warriors (4-4) — aren’t without their weaknesses. Calgary’s offense can do some damage, but their goaltending has been a coin flip this season, getting shelled or being hell for opposing forwards. Georgia’s inconsistent across the board, similar to Halifax. Ottawa’s offense is atrocious — there’s really no more appropriate way to put it — and shouldn’t be given the names out the front door. Philadelphia’s defensive issues are being overshadowed by their explosive offense. Vancouver’s offense is also flat, wasting excellent defensive performances week in and out.
For those teams, it’s easy to see how they make the postseason but difficult to imagine how they can upset the Bandits in a best-of-three series. Maybe they figure out how to rectify their respective issues, but we’ve seen enough of them to season to know that what they have been is probably what they will be moving forward.
But the Mammoth and Rush, I can see a world where they’re hoisting the NLL Cup. Here’s why.
Photo Credit: Las Vegas Desert Dogs
(A lot of this is in a graph at the bottom if you’d rather look at pretty colors and shapes instead of read.)
The Bandits offense is averaging 16.0 GF/GAME; 9.83 of them are ESG, and their +25 TrueES Goal Differential is the best in the league this season. Even strength is where I put most of my stock in a team’s performance, and it’s an area the Mammoth and Rush also do well in. They have the next best TrueES Goal Differentials at +21 and +12, respectively, and they’re literally right behind the Bandits in TreuESE% at third and fourth — only the Wings can claim a better settled offense, but again, I worry about their back end.
I don’t worry about Buffalo’s defense, but there was a stretch this season where their settled defense showed chinks in the armor. The Rock and Wings really pressed the Bandits defense in January, and Matt Vinc (355:13 min., 9.63 GAA, .797 Sv%, 4.97 GSAA) wasn’t at his best in that pair of games with a 13.50 GAA and .693 Sv%. That duo contributed to the Bandits having a middle-of-the-pack TrueESE% of 12.0%, which is a bit better than league average.
The Mammoth and Rush don’t have that issue settled and have been consistently stout this season. Their 10.8% and 10.6%, respective again, are second and fourth best for all settled defenses in the league.
While the Bandits’ offensive production at even strength is rather gaudy, all three teams are pretty similar in what I believe is the most important facet of the game, although one that’s showing to be less impactful as the season’s gone on and the winning percentage for teams outscoring their opponent settled has steadily decreased. The Mammoth and Rush have better even strength defenses, led by Dillon Ward (542:41 min., 10.73 GAA, .800 Sv%, 9.74 GSAA) for the black and maroon and Frank Scigliano (376:00 min., 9.57 GAA, .797 Sv%, 5.28 GSAA) and impressive rookie Thomas “The Human Crowbar” Kiazyk (119:38 min., 10.53 GAA, .790 Sv%, 1.05 GSAA) in neon green.
Similarities don’t win you games; if the Mammoth or Rush are to pull off the ultimate upset in May, then they need to target the Bandits’ weakness — the power play and penalty kill.
The Rush have the edge here handily. The Mammoth aren’t great 5-on-4 (14.7% TruePPE%) or 4-on-5 (23.1 TruePKE%), as they’re the worst team in the NLL at special teams. The Bandits are weak on the power play (16.4 TruePPE%) and a bit above average on the PK (17.5 TruePKE%) — to be fair, they take care of their business 5-on-5 and in transition (we’ll get to this shortly), so who cares if they’re not as great in uneven situations?
Saskatchewan should care — their power play is just a bit more successful than Buffalo (17.0 TruePPE%), but they’ve one of the best man-down defenses in the NLL (13.6 TruePKE%). They don’t go on the penalty kill often, averaging 3.5 PK/GAME, but when they do, they’re doing a damn fine job preventing opponents from finding the back of the net. Advantage green.
Transition is having more of an impact on games this season than last season. In 2023-24, teams that outscored their opponent on fast breaks won the game 43.7% of the time; that number’s 51.8% this season, and the Bandits are heavily contributing to that increased success rate. Roughly 1 in 5 of their transition chances result in a goal. As well as they run from D to O, they do even better the opposite way, as they boast the lowest defensive TrueFBE% at 8.5%.
This is where the wheels could hypothetically come off the axels for the Mammoth and Rush, but it’s not like they’re bad in transition. Defensively, they’re a bit better than average at TrueFBE% (15.6% for COL, 16.5% for SAS). Offensively, both have a 14.0 TrueFBE% — Colorado wastes/loses roughly a fifth of their transition shifts, failing to record a shot on the run. The Bandits are clearly better than them in transition no matter how you slice it, and it’s the most likely area that tips a best-of-three series in the defending champ’s favor.
Shorthanded shifts, while placing less importance on scoring and more focus on killing clock, also put a thumb on the scales for the Bandits, although the Mammoth and Rush do about the same job defending shorthanded shots against. Buffalo’s TrueSHE% of 15.4% is vastly superior to the other two. It’s an edge, and for the Rush, who have the most PP/GAME in the league at 6.0, it’s an area they can’t be lax in.
Another area the Bandits really excel at is multiple possessions. They have the best MPE% in the NLL at 25.8%, five percentage points higher than the next best team, the Wings. Colorado’s offense is really good at MPE%, as well, sitting third at 19.5%; Saskatchewan isn’t as productive with their 12.3 MPE%, third worst in the NLL. But the defenses are a different story — Saskatchewan is really good at not letting opponents take advantage of extended possessions; Buffalo and Colorado are two of the worst teams in this category.
I’ll talk a bit about individual players, but mostly how the Bandits are incredibly top heavy — Dhane Smith and Josh Byrne account for 45.6% of their team’s total points — and the Mammoth and Rush are more balanced. Six of the Mammoth forwards have over 28 points each; the Rush boast four forwards over that same amount. I personally prefer a more balanced approach when it comes to forward production for a team, but the Bandits have won two ships with the Dhane & Josh show — it’s kind of hard to argue against that when it clearly works.
Photo Credit: Buffalo Bandits
That was a lot to read, I’ll admit. But it really comes down to this:
The Bandits are a behemoth, but not one without weakness. They’re top-heavy when it comes to production and aren’t taking advantage of special teams as much as they probably should. Flashes of weakness defensively have shown themselves, but they’re small sample sizes, not significant — I’m picking pepper out of fly shit there. Unfortunately for anyone else, the areas they’re good in are where they’re really damn great.
Consistency and a well-rounded squad are necessary to dethrone the kings, and the Colorado Mammoth and Saskatchewan Rush are arguably the best in the business when it comes to those areas this season. Yeah, Colorado’s special teams are a glaring area to address, but outside of that, the two western teams are really similar to the Bandits and spread their goal-scoring out a little more evenly amongst forwards.
Pat Gregoire opined that the only way to stop the Bandits in May is in a win-or-go-home situation. I don’t disagree with that sentiment, anything can happen in a single game, but the teams likely to match up with the Bandits in the Quarterfinals haven’t historically played them well in KeyBank Center. The Georgia Swarm took them to OT last postseason, but repeating that performance when they have their own issues this season and the Bandits are the cream of the crop sounds near impossible to replicate.
An upset in a best-of-three NLL Finals is doable — the Mammoth did it back in 2022 against the same Bandits. The Rush are as consistent across the board as you can get, and that will go a long way towards their successes this season.
We’ve still plenty of season left to watch, but as I see things now, those two are the teams I’d trust to get the job done against a truly remarkable Buffalo Bandits.
The Bandits