Week 5 pt. 1 — Warriors Meltdown; Thoughts on Advanced NLL Stats
Part 1 of a doubleheader following Week 5 NLL action: Warriors Warrior’d, and let’s start using advanced stats regularly
Photo Credit: Kalea Vizmanos/San Diego Seals
Week 5 in the NLL was stupid good, eh?
The final weekend of 2023 delivered some of the best lacrosse games so far this young season, and by nature of us transitioning into 2024, it inherently brought self-reflection, reviewing the year in whole and hopeful prognostications for the future.
Much as I wish I could say I was immune from that foolhardy exercise, I’m clearly not. It affects this article. Don’t worry, I’ll talk about the Warriors’ meltdown and goals scored immediately off a face-off win, but when reviewing my notes from this week, there were two things I wanted to touch on that are more commendations and pleas for better use of advanced statistics, and both involve NLL broadcasts.
Those two topics have made this a significantly long read, as I channeled my inner Evan Schemenauer writing Random Thoughts. I appreciate anyone that reads anything I write, and asking you to stomach over 3,000 words in one article was a request I couldn’t make in good conscience. So, I split this article into two parts; part two will release Friday.
Part 1 covers the Warriors’ second-half implosion and some introspective thoughts I had on advanced statistics for the NLL. Part 2 will cover missing film from LVvCGY, goals scored off the draw, and the part you really care about: the first power rankings of 2024.
Photo Credit: John Harrison/Colorado Mammoth
Warriors Meltdown
I really hate the phrase “Warriors Warrior’d” and all its alternates. It was a befuddled and sad head-shaking phrase that expressed the futility of an organization that just couldn’t get out of its own way on and off the floor. The hiring of Curt Malawsky as GM and head coach signaled to myself and I think it’s fair to say everyone else that those days were well and truly behind Vancouver. Sure, they might not be a top five team off the bat, but they would be competitive and wouldn’t piss games away
Then they didn’t score in the second half of Saturday’s game and lost to the Mammoth in OT in a game they were up 11-5 in at halftime. Sportsball.
What happened in those third and fourth quarters?
We have to look at the first half to truly understand how bipolar the game was. In those first 30 minutes, the offense netted 9 ESG on 32 sets. Their S%/SOG%/E% (what I affectionately call a slash line) 5-on-5 was 25.0/63.9/28.1, with just two lost ES possessions, four combined lost possessions (one power play, one fast break) — that last stat is particularly mind-boggling. The Mammoth defense was letting their opponent dictate nearly the entire half. Vancouver also got the job done on the power play, quickly potting a pair on four PPSets.
On the defensive side of things, Aaron Bold had a .808 Sv%, with the defense only allowing 28 even strength shots against, 18 of which were on target. It meant the Mammoth had a 7.1/64.3/7.1 ES slash line.
Then the wheels fell off. For the next 33:05 min. of action, the Warriors did not find the back of the net despite 38 combined sets, 10 of which came in their 7:29 min. on the power play — completely missed opportunity. Shooting and efficiency percentages are obviously bagels, so let’s look at SOG% for ES and PP — a 52.9 ESSOG% and 46.2 PPSOG%. Warriors swung, but they swung wide at an alarming rate.
Defensively, the Warriors caused a combined 7 lost possessions, which is the same amount they caused in the the first half. Bold’s Sv% obviously took a hit, but a .774 Sv% is still really respectable.
It was a bit of a Riptide offensive performance for those final 33:05 minutes from the Warriors. Bold and the defense were consistently doing their part against a Mammoth offense that was pretty steady in how they played all game long. It’s completely fair to say one goal from the Warriors forwards would have tipped the scales back in their teams’ favor, take some pressure of the back end.
I really appreciate the viewpoint my colleague Stephen Stamp at ILIndoor posited in his latest musings, as it’s important to recognize how much better the team is compared to seasons past. But there’s not a better way to put their performance last Saturday: Warriors Warrior’d.
Thoughts on Advanced NLL Stats
I’ve listened to a lot of pro sports broadcasts in my lifetime, most notably every NLL broadcast for the last five seasons. The quality varies, but for the most part, NLL broadcast teams are really damn good, especially the sideline reporters.
I’m confident in saying Cooper Perkins and Nick Ossello had probably the best call of the season last Friday during the Knighthawks and Seals matchup.
For those that somehow don’t know at this point, Perkins has been leading the way for advanced analytics in the NLL for the last three seasons with his site LaxMetrics.com. The NLL did one of the smartest things it’s done in recent memory by backing Perkins’ site and amplifying it, with his weekly piece of advanced stat content on NLL.com and the campaign during broadcasts promoting his site and statistics.
What I really appreciated about that Seals broadcast was how Perkins leaned into the easier to understand numbers and how he and Ossello worked off it. It was respectful to the audience, not throwing anything so complicated at them that a viewer couldn’t internalize what was said and how they used it to frame what was happening on the floor.
For example, talking about Chris Origlieri’s 1-v-1 save percentage being the best in the league reinforced the save he made on Ryan Lanchbury’s shot as he came streaking off the bench unmolested in the second quarter. Using Raine Michael’s interview with Mike Hasen at the start of halftime as a jumping point to talk about the halftime adjustments Rochester makes as evidenced by their defensive shooting percentage being the second best mark in the game highlighted what Hasen said. Ossello used it to discuss the team’s areas to build off of in the second half.
LaxMetrics’ player stats have been great, as it’s allowing us to specifically point at players who do the little things on the floor that don’t show up on the game sheet.
As an example, I love Thomas Hoggarth’s game — it’s the epitome of doing the little things for teammates and being rewarded for those efforts with insane goals. He’s in my top five for most entertaining forwards to watch (Lyle Thompson, Randy Staats, Jesse King, and Ben McIntosh), but his non-goal-scoring efforts don’t tell the story of how good his off-ball game is. Hoggarth mucks it up without the ball beautifully, and Pick Assists (PA) display that perfectly. Hoggarth led the NLL last season in this category with 16 of them, 33% more than the two players after him (Brandon Robinson and Tanner Cook). This season, he has four in three games, again leading the league, along with the likes of Chris Wardle, Brendan Bomberry, Ryan Smith, Wes Berg, and Corey Small, all off-ball fiends and at least one of them a top 15 forward in the NLL according to NLL coaches and GMs that know the alphabet.
That’s a bit particular of a stat but one I’m a big fan of, and one I think is easy to reference. Go back and watch the Rock against Panther City. Small set two picks — they were moving in everything but the ref’s whistle — that led to Mark Matthews’ game-tying and go-ahead goals. The sample sizes are too small this early on to say anything about how Small’s performing overall, but it’s easy to credit him with an obvious pick assist in those situations.
Photo Credit: Colleen Shaw/Panther City LC
It’s refreshing to hear during a game broadcast stats specifically referencing what’s going on. For far too long have people — broadcasters, in this section’s case — just said “loose balls are good, they’re outworking the other team” or positing opinions they can’t bother backing up with anything more than a gut feeling.
That’s not necessarily bad; you want your broadcasters’ guts to have good opinions, because they’re hopefully experts in the product in front of them. Now, there’s new information out there to back it up; it just takes a bit of time to learn the lingo and how to incorporate it.
As an aside, yes, I heard Cooper mention my name during the broadcast. It was ironically hilarious to me that everything of mine he referenced during the game, the opposite of it happened. Good job, Roch’s extra attacker defense, way to make me look dumb.
Part of my New Year’s introspection was this whole stats project I’m working on and how it works in the grand scheme of everything. Coming from a journalism background, I tend to view things from an inverted pyramid standpoint. The most important information has to go first, and you parse down from there, saving the least important info for later.
Not saying I’m ascribing importance between mine and Perkins’ work, but I personally use my information as a broad starting point since it’s more team-oriented and general to a degree, narrowing it down from there using Perkins’ work. The Rock have a 5.6 ESE% and against this season. Why? Mitch de Snoo’s a large part of it with his 9.1 DS%, one of the best in the NLL, and pay attention to how sneaky good of a defender TD Ierlan has become, as his DS% is the same as de Snoo’s (albeit in less defensive sets).
I’m starting to tap the drum for Jordan MacIntosh for DPotY because I’m noticing how well he’s playing on the floor, and Perkins gives me evidence to back that opinion up — a 2.9 DS%, 1.98 goals prevented, and 87.06 dMOPscore, the former of which is the best in the NLL and the latter two which are in the top 10 amongst all NLL defenders.
The reason for this whole section and why I’m such a huge fan of what Perkins and Ossello did last Saturday is because the info’s there; use it, damn it. Between it being the regular stats Graeme Perrow presents because after a season-plus the NLL can’t put that information on their own website or Perkins’ advanced player and team metrics or my team stats, we have publicly available numbers that break down what’s going on for teams and how they’re doing.
It doesn’t need to get super advanced. I don’t think anyone cares that SHFBE% is 26.3%, math is involved, but knowing the split between shorthanded goals scored in a time-wasting set compared to a shorthanded transition set is 14-15 is interesting to everyone. Maybe the exact numbers backing up why the Swarm’s captain is low key having a great defensive season don’t need a two minute discussion during a broadcast, but it helps being able to say he’s playing great, knowing you have the data to back it up.
This ended up being a lot longer of a section than I initially planned it to be. Guess I’m passionate about NLL statistics or something. Who knows? Spend some time on LaxMetrics.com and my site and get smurter.