Warriors D; Same Ol’ Riptide; Get Shorty; Quick Hits
Admiring the Warriors defense, focusing on the usual issue for the Riptide, a plague of shorthanded markers, and some quick stat hits before updated Power Rankings
Photo Credit: Jaclyn McKee/Vancouver Warriors
Some interesting stat trends are starting to form in the National Lacrosse League for the 2023-24 season, but we’re still trapped in the realm of small sample size, especially since the Mammoth and Rock only have a game apiece under their belts.
Until we exit the dreaded land of SSS, the focus will have to be a bit narrower than I care for. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t interesting lessons to gleam from individual game performances or league-wide trends.
So, let’s take a look at the Warriors defense, review how the Riptide are following the same trend as last year, talk about penalty kill units going above and beyond, penultimate it up with some quick stat notes, and then wrap it up with another useless Power Rankings.
Photo Credit: Jaclyn McKee/Vancouver Warriors
Warriors D
I know the Rush just held the Desert Dogs to five goals and the Thunderbirds kept the Riptide at six last weekend. I also realize the Warriors themselves were held to just seven goals in Week 1.
Doesn’t matter. In their first win against the Swarm since that team moved from Minnesota, the Warriors defense put on the best defensive showcase so far in this young season.
The dramatic turnaround from the second-half collapse against PCLC is tremendous. Just from the eye test alone, the Warriors clogged up the middle, swatting skip feeds down in congested areas and forcing the Swarm forwards primarily topside, where their long-range shots were wide or directed at Aaron Bold’s five-hole or bread basket. Every defender was impressive, especially rookies Owen Grant and Brayden Laity, the latter of whom had his name said so often by Teddy Jenner during the TSN broadcast that I briefly wondered if that was the only name Teddy knew on the Warriors. Instead it was because the ninth overall pick in the 2023 NLL Entry Draft was just that impressive every time he took the floor, cerebral, aggressive, and a step ahead.
It felt like a coming out party of sorts for the Warriors, mostly because we analysts felt justified by our praises and prognostications of the Warriors with their revamped defense. Look how good they are! Look what they did to Lyle Thompson and Andrew Kew! Imagine that all season long!
But (a) it’s just one game out of two played, so plenty more to come before we can reliably say they’re that damn good, and (b) the Warriors defense was that damn good against PCLC, it just got overshadowed by their opponents’ power play and transition sets and Bold’s weak performance in the final 30 minutes in Week 1.
In both of their games, the Warriors settled defense was phenomenal, allowing just 3 ESG across 52 ESSets in each game and a 5.8 ESE%. Only two other teams have a better ESE% this early in the season, the Thunderbirds (4.0%) and Rock (3.7%). Vancouver lost both the power play and transition game, but in both contests, it was a -1 goal differential in both categories, not exactly getting blown out on special teams or on fast breaks. They did a much better job in reverse transition in game two, cutting their FBSets against from 17 to 12.
As I’ve said before, the NLL is such a goaltender-dependent league that if a team’s goalie is less than above average, they’re sledding uphill. Against PCLC, we saw this in action, as Bold went from a first-half .792 Sv% to a second-half .684 Sv%. His splits were significantly less severe against the Swarm, going .850 in the first half and .818 in the second half for a cumulative .829 Sv%.
His GSAA stat is a bit more telling. Ahead of Saturday’s contest, the 38-year-old had a -1.02 GSAA. Two-and-a-half hours and 34 saves later, his GSAA got positive, jumping to 1.23. Bold went from a below-average performance one game to above-average in another.
Saturday’s performance reinforces what we already know: The Warriors will go as far as Aaron Bold will take them. The defense in front of him is ridiculously strong, as what they did against PCLC they were also doing against the Swarm. If Bold wobbles at any point in the game, it can result in a loss. If he plays as well as he did against the Swarm, then it’s going to suck for opposing forwards over the next 16 games.
Photo Credit: Brandon Hill/New York Riptide
Same Ol’ Riptide
*Unless I state otherwise, 2023-24 stats for this section are referencing True numbers.
It’s starting to feel like all I do is rip on the ’Tide, which isn’t my intention. But the problems of yesterseason are continuing into this season, and it’s worth looking at.
In 2022-23, the Riptide scored 201 goals for an 11.17 GF/GAME, which was 10th in the NLL. Their collective 16.6 S% was only surpassed by two clubs, and their 72.0 SOG% was the best in the league. That sounds good until you remember they were flat out outshot throughout the season by 252 shots across 18 games, an extra 14 shots per game for opponents to work with. Doesn’t matter how accurate you are if an opponent overwhelms you.
Even strength and 5-on-4, they were either just above or right at average for E% in those categories (11.9 ESE% — NLL 11.4 ESE%; 19.4 PPE% — NLL 19.4 PPE%), which was 72.9% of their game. Again, doesn’t sound too bad having an average offense, until you remember this team has Jeff Teat on it — average is underperforming.
The real concern is their slow starts, though. In their first four games, they put up 14 against the Seals, 11 against the Thunderbirds, 7 against the Rock, and 8 against the Knighthawks, all losses. While they did eventually get off the schnide against the FireWolves in a 16-10 win, their even strength numbers tell the story behind their early struggles.
The Riptide were getting handled in the even strength game, with efficiency percentages below their opponents’ numbers, except against the Knighthawks, who dominated on/in Long Island on special teams and in transition for the 11-8 win. It wasn’t until they erupted offensively against the FireWolves that the Riptide got their first win of the season. That eruption was noticeable not just for the number of 5-on-5 goals scored and efficiency, but because it was also the first time the Riptide had more ESSets than their opponent and had a better ESSOG%.
It reinforces a mantra of mine: He who wins the even strength game rules the world. Last season, teams that outscored their opponent settled won 87.7% of the time. The Riptide were 4-2 in such contests.
But that was last season, and this is this season, so it can’t be the same thing, Matthew McConaughey with a ponytail crushing a beer can time is a flat circle, right?
Of course it can. Of course it is. That’s why I’m writing this.
Across two games, the Riptide settled offense has only found the back of the net six times, posting a 6.7 and 4.2 ESE% against the Wings and Thunderbirds, respectively. Their 5.6 ESE% for the season is the worst in the NLL. The only team close to as bad as them — the Wings at 7.0% — have a left side ravaged by injuries.
History’s repeating. It was easy — really easy — to point at the Riptide’s defense last season and say they were not getting enough stops, and now lazily transplant that argument to the New York of the present. But given the fact the Riptide’s offense is underperforming significantly, I’d argue the Riptide defense is shouldering the load right now and trying to keep the team afloat while an offense with Teat flounders. Hell, the Riptide settled defense held the healthy Wings and Thunderbirds settled offenses to E% under 10%, which is a huge improvement on last season.
Something’s got to give with the Riptide offense. They started off with a four-game gauntlet last season. This season’s no easier until they play a depleted Wings on Jan. 7. Starting off 0-4 again because the offense can’t match the defense’s efforts just isn’t going to cut it in a hyper-competitive National Lacrosse League.
Photo Credit: Mike Kirschbaum/Las Vegas Desert Dogs
Get Shorty
“You’re trying to tell me you f*cked up without sounding stupid, and that’s hard to do.” - Chili Palmer to Harry Zimm/the Rush PK to opponents.
There is an epidemic of shorthanded goals being scored in the 2023-24 NLL season, with the site of origin at Saskatoon.
Last season, the Rush scored 5 SHG and had 10 scored against them. In just December 2023, the Rush have 7 SHG, zilch against.
Their success scoring on the penalty kill isn’t as much of an outlier as you’d imagine, as shorthanded goals are being recorded at a furious pace this season. Through 16 games played, 21 have found the back of the net, but only eight teams are responsible for this 21 (the fact the Rush account for a third of the shorties scored this season is…unhinged).
As a comparison, only 11 SHG were recorded in 17 games to start the 2022-23 season. If I’m feeling generous and count all the shorthanded markers recorded in December 2022, it’s 16 in 20 games played.
Particularly telling is how many of these shorthanded tallies are scored in a more “traditional” set compared to transition. It’s 12-9 in favor of traditional, with Albany and San Diego Austin Staats sporting a trio apiece in longer 4-on-5 shifts. SHFB is the name of the game for the Rush, who have five, their same amount as total SHG scored last season.
Out of 276 cumulative SHSets (5.1% of all sets), the NLL SHE% is 8.7%, and out of just 84 SHFBSets (1.6%), NLL SHFBE% is 21.4%. It’s up to the situation and individual team preferences for how a team approaches their penalty killing sets, so it’s hard to definitively say always go for a 4-on-5 for 25 seconds or always run it up the floor. In-game context matters.
NLL shooters are too damn good, man. Even defenders, who score most of the SHFBG, have some incredible accuracy. You can’t look away for a second, even during a shift known more for killing clock, because you might miss something amazing.
Photo Credit: Mike Hetzel/Buffalo Bandits
Quick Hits
In the 2022-23 NLL season, only one game saw both teams win the same amount of face-offs, Las Vegas at Albany on Feb. 18. It was a 12-10 win in favor of the Desert Dogs, and both teams were 13-26. Oddly enough, the Swarm have gone .500 at the draw in both of their contests this season. Their recent loss to the Warriors saw them also go 13-26.
The FireWolves power play is really bad. Stop booing me, I’m right. They’re averaging 1.0 PPG/GAME and have a 6.38 PPE%, which is almost half as bad as the next worse team, the 11.11 PPE% Rock who have only played a game and have a fifth of the PPSets the FireWolves have. It hasn’t hurt the FireWolves, evidenced by their perfect start. But just imagine what this team would look like if they had a league average power play (18.29 PPE%). With 47 PPSets, that would come out to roughly six more power play goals across their three games, boosting their 14.7 GF/GAME to 16.7 GF/GAME.
The Seals have outscored the Roughnecks and Bandits at only two facets of the game — even strength and shorthanded. But where they blew the Roughnecks out of the water with a 9-5 settled night, they were just 5-4 against the Bandits. Considering both the Riggers and Bandits won the special teams, transition, and unsettled games, Saturday’s loss to Buffalo went to show that just barely winning the settled game doesn’t mean much if you’re not seeing successes everywhere else on the floor.
Zach Higgins had a rough time against the FireWolves Saturday afternoon, although I think it’s safe to pin that on a Wings defense that had a meltdown. It’s always been their MO to let Higgins see a ton of shots. The 166 he’s seen are the most in the NLL this season. After him is Landon Kells of Las Vegas with 164 shots against, albeit in 179:24 min. compared to Higgin’s 163:16. Duder sees more than a shot a minute and is still elite. Case in point, his GSAA pre-Week 3 was 6.84, the best in the league; now, it’s 5.00, the second-best in the league.
Last season, the Thunderbirds were over 50% at face-offs in every game. Week 1 this season, they were 29-33, continuing their dot dominance and earning the win. Last Saturday, Jake Withers was ejected after starting a fight — not getting into whether it was justified or not, just pointing out he got the instigator, game misconduct, and boot — and the Thunderbirds lost the draw game for the first time since I started tracking stats, going 11-23. They still won anyways.
Photo Credit: Heather Barry/Philadelphia Wings
Power Rankings
Friendly reminder:
An NLL season is a marathon, not a race. Placement is based on what teams show over a period of time. Just because a team completely revamped their roster in the offseason or beat a team that was above them in the rankings one week doesn’t mean they automatically jump up spots.
Records are not what I base rankings on. If a team wins 14 games to start the season and then drops the next four badly, then that recent performance will weigh more than them having the best record that season.
This is supposed to be fun. I take this mildly seriously, but it’s just, like, my opinion, man. It’s not worth getting worked up over.
Just because I missed last week doesn’t mean I didn’t do a Power Rankings behind the scenes. It’ll be reflected in each teams’ previous rankings. One team had a gargantuan leap and knocked a few teams down despite those other squads either winning or not playing. Kinda running out of excuses to keep a 3-0 team higher up the rankings.
Power Rankings are dumb, let’s overreact:
15. New York Riptide (0-2)
Previous ranking: 13
Week 3 results: 14-6 loss to the Thunderbirds
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (1-2)
Previous ranking: 12
Week 3 results: 17-5 loss to the Rush
13. Saskatchewan Rush (1-2)
Previous ranking: 14
Week 3 results: 17-5 win against the Desert Dogs
12. Vancouver Warriors (1-1)
Previous ranking: 15
Week 3 results: 15-7 win against the Swarm
11. Philadelphia Wings (1-2)
Previous ranking: 8
Week 3 results: 15-10 loss to the FireWolves
10. Colorado Mammoth (0-1)
Previous ranking: 10
Week 3 results: Did not play
9. Calgary Roughnecks (0-2)
Previous ranking: 9
Week 3 results: Did not play
8. Georgia Swarm (1-1)
Previous ranking: 6
Week 3 results: 15-7 loss to the Warriors
7. Panther City LC (1-1)
Previous ranking: 7
Week 3 results: Did not play
6. Halifax Thunderbirds (2-0)
Previous ranking: 5
Week 3 results: 14-6 win against the Riptide
5. Rochester Knighthawks (2-0)
Previous ranking: 4
Week 3 results: Did not play
4. San Diego Seals (1-1)
Previous ranking: 2
Week 3 results: 12-9 loss to the Bandits
3. Albany FireWolves (3-0)
Previous ranking: 11
Week 3 results: 15-10 win against the Wings
2. Buffalo Bandits (1-1)
Previous ranking: 3
Week 3 results: 12-9 against the Seals
1. Toronto Rock (1-0)
Previous ranking: 1
Week 3 results: Did not play