Thoughts 1/3 of the Way through the 2024-25 NLL Season — pt. 2

I rattle through the remaining seven NLL teams, writing down my thoughts on them with roughly a third of the season behind us

I ambled on and on about this exercise and pair of articles in the first part yesterday. Feel free to read that to get up to speed. Otherwise, strap in as I run through the seven other NLL teams and my thoughts on their seasons so far. The soundtrack for part 2 is BADBADNOTGOOD’s Talk Memory.

All terminology, examples, and shorthand can be found here.

Ottawa Black Bears (4-2)

Defense wins championships. That’s certainly the refrain a team with Jeff Teat should bellow in every direction it can.

Sarcasm aside, it’s tiring saying a Riptide/Black Bears team with Jeff “Generational Talent” Teat should score a million goals. This was the least efficient settled offense in 2023-24 (10.7 TrueESE%); they’re actually a tad bit worse so far in 2024-25 (10.1 TrueESE% — NLL defenses are really good). New York’s power play was as automatic as you can get (TruePPE% of 33.6%), and they ran like someone lit a match under their shoes (TrueFBE% of 19.4%, third best in the NLL); that’s not been the case this season as Ottawa.

Defensively, the Riptide had the second worst goalie in the NLL by GSAA in Cam Dunkerley, who had an unsightly -14.71 GSAA. The defense in front of him was doing well enough — a 68.3 TrueESSOG% and 21.9 TrueESLP%, both in the top six in their respective categories — but Dunkerley might not have been ready to shoulder the starter role yet.

Zach Higgins done been ready and has been the most underrated starter since 2019-20. The 34-year-old faces less SA/60 than his backup did — 50.0 compared to Dunkerley’s 52.4 last season — but he makes the regular saves look easy and the spectacular saves look regular. It’s borderline impossible to prove the idea that a defense can be good but a goaltender wastes those efforts (the Warriors last season were that, but they had an easier case to argue given the names on that defense), but I was of the mind last season that that was the case in NY.

It’s not the case here in Canada’s capital. The defense is better across the board, and Higgins is exceptional between the uprights. Sure, the offense could certainly be better, but I’d rather hang my hat on a strong defense instead of trying to outshoot my defensive problems.

Philadelphia Wings (5-2)

Offense wins championships.

I really appreciated week 8 of the 2024-25 NLL regular season because I finally feel confident in my assessment of the Wings. Their offense is as for real as real gets. They split 28 goals evenly against the two best defenses in the NLL last weekend (although the Bandits defense has taken a step back of late), but their own defensive shortcomings were on display. Losing Scott Dominey — who I think was having his best NLL season to date — to a torn ACL hurts, but I think Evan Messenger provides similar defensive value, and the Wings settled offense and power play production mean they can afford to lose Dominey’s transition pushes.

Those “shortcomings” really aren’t that bad (Nick Damude still faces a ton of shots, however, 57.7 SA/60, the most of any starter that’s not on Las Vegas). The Wings are middle of the pack when it comes to defense; they could be a bit stouter on special teams. An offense that pots 14.6 GF/GAME and has a relatively average or better defense and above average netminder can win championships — look at the 2017 Georgia Swarm.

Oh yeah, Brennan O’Neill’s adaptation to the box game has been transcendent in its naturalness, like a fish to water. There are some impressive rookies this season, but he’s running away with the Rookie of the Year award.

Maybe you can outshoot your defensive problems…

Rochester Knighthawks (3-5)

Give Riley Hutchcraft his flowers. He was the worst starting goalie last season by every metric (12.82 GAA, .758 Sv%, -18.67 GSAA), but that time really developed him into a consistent starter for the Knighthawks in 2024-25. He faces the fourth highest SA/60 of any goalie with 100 minutes played (54.66), his GAA (11.32) and Sv% (.793) are better than league average (11.45 and .779, respectively), and he’s third in the NLL with a 5.68 GSAA, ahead of guys like Matt Vinc, Frank Scigliano, Brett Dobson, and Dillon Ward, to name a few.

Could he be better? Yeah, but every NLL netminder could be better. A defense that’s missing Dan Coates again is served well by Hutchcraft once again filling in for the oft-injured Rylan Hartley and delivering consistency.

That consistency is important, because the offense being middle of the pack after I predicted preseason they would carry this team to the NLL Finals is a tad perplexing. They’re top five in TrueESE% (13.3%) but below league average everywhere else. One area I really thought they’d excel at is multiple possessions — which they do, as Connor Fields is an offensive loose ball hound —, but they don’t cash in as often on those consecutive shifts as they probably should. They’re about average in MPE% (16.5%). Rochester’s offense has really rounded into form in their recent trio of games, but they need to match Hutchcraft’s consistency if they want to play in May.

Also, please never take Jake Piseno out of the lineup. He’s so damn good and so much fun to watch wherever he plays — collegiately, NCBS, PLL, NLL, it’s always a treat watching him take the field/turf.

San Diego Seals (3-4)

I have no clue what’s going on with this offense. I thought the right-handed forwards would shoulder the load as the patchwork left side tried to figure out which mix-and-match delivered the best results, held together by the Zach Currier showcasing why he’s one of the top five players on the planet. Instead, no one is finding the back of the net at expected levels.

Player	2024-25 GP	2024-25 PTS	Projected 2024-25 PTS Total	Career PTS Average pre-2024-25
Rob Hellyer	7	33	84.9	87.5
Ryan Benesch	7	29	74.6	85.6
Wes Berg	7	29	74.6	89.4
Ben McIntosh	7	25	64.3	69.9
Kyle Jackson	5	15	54.0	57.6
Zach Currier	7	13	33.4	23.2

I’ll contend this is a stupid table to include Currier in. He’s the platinum standard for transition players and is being asked to play a ton of offense and still spend time being a unicorn. Of course his points projection is going to be greater than his career average. If it was down, that’d be a different issue. I also didn’t include rookies in this, because they’re setting a baseline in their first NLL campaigns.

The bigger concern is that everyone is slightly below their career averages, most notably Benesch and Berg. Benesch is 39 and still more productive than most forwards; he has the exact same amount of points as O’Neill. But Berg’s production isn’t close to what we’ve come to expect from him, and I think that’s bleeding into everything.

The expectation preseason was the righties would be alright and the lefties would be whatever works (seven different players have played forward on the Seals left side this season, and two of them should really be playing transition; I’m not confident their newest addition will solve anything). That’s been the case, but it’s unfortunately multiplied by the Seals captain being in danger of failing to reach the 100-point plateau for a third consecutive season. A rising tide lifts all ships and all that jazz.

Defense is great, one of the best in the league at controlling shots against, although I am a bit concerned by them trading away reliable defender Drew Belgrave to bring in underperforming forward Dylan Watson, taking from an area of strength to shore up an area of weakness in what seemed like an imbalanced trade from the get-go.

*Photo Credit: Stephen Hiscock/Saskatchewan Rush*

Saskatchewan Rush (4-2)

Defense wins championships, but make it green.

This Rush defense is a mean green machine in an athletic and intelligent way that is simultaneously similar and different from their dynasty years defense and I don’t think is appreciated enough. After week 8, the Rush boast the best TrueESE% at 9.6%, and they prevent opponents from getting any shot off in a fourth of their settled shifts — only San Diego’s better at that (31.1 TrueESLP%). Everything else is pretty average for them defensively, but considering the Rush spend 66.3% of their total shifts on even strength (third most in the NLL), they’re seeing success in the most important and time-consuming facet of the game.

There’s not really any weaknesses to point at with this team. The offense is balanced, especially with captain Ryan Keenan’s point production ballooning the last two weeks (12 PTS in two games). Jake Naso is incredibly fun to watch at the face-off dot. I want to rave about how good Jake Boudreau is, and he’s not even the best defender on this team — Matt Hossack with his league-leading 20 CTO is. I hate saying I’m waiting for Frank Scigliano to finally go the distance and not falter in the final stretches of the season, but that’s literally the only thing I can imagine derailing this ride. I’m rooting for it to not happen; this team has that special quality to them that shoves past narratives in the trash.

Toronto Rock (1-5)

Their record is what it is, but I’ve felt positively about the Rock in their last trio of games, especially more so once Challen Rogers slotted back into the lineup. The offensive stats agree with the eye test, as they had better TrueESE% in their last two games — a 15-13 loss to the Bandits and an 11-8 win against the Rush. They never had a TrueESE% above 10% before those games, then posted a 19.5 and 10.8%, respectively. Also doesn’t hurt having Tom Schreiber healthy and delivering in the win, but I think Rogers is the bigger X-factor.

It sucks that the better offensive production also coincided with Mark Matthews being out of the lineup, which will be for the rest of the season according to Rock owner and general manager Jamie Dawick on ep. 322 of Lacrosse Classified. Matthews playing banged up explains his down production when he was in the lineup and clearly didn’t look alright. Getting healthy will be best for himself and the Rock, and as was a common refrain in part 1, this feels a bit like addition by subtraction, although the Rock have added Rogers and Schreiber back in — maths. The lefties as a whole still need to step up, but I’m a big fan of Corey Small and think he’ll get into a groove the longer the season goes on. Brian Cameron’s also been a pleasant surprise, a big body with a dynamite shot.

And Nick Rose is trending in the right direction; any fans yelling for him to be traded/benched are out of their mind. He’s held opponents to 10 or less goals in half his games and has two games with save percentages over .800. His performance in the win against the Rush lowered his season GAA by almost a full goal and bumped his save percentage up almost two full percentage points. “Trade Rose;” just a stupid, willfully ignorant take.

*Photo Credit: Ryan Nix/Philadelphia Wings*

Vancouver Warriors (3-3)

Can I acquire more Owen Grant stock if I was the only person I know of that thought he should have won NLL Rookie of the Year last season?

A rough week 8 doesn’t change the good and bad for the Warriors. Their defense is elite (I still maintain its the best in the NLL), and their offense is heavily reliant on strong individual efforts. A 14-spot against in Philly hurt their True percentages a bit, knocking them from best TrueESE% to second best (by two-tenths of a percentage point, 9.8%), but they’re still top four on the PK and at stopping transition. Aden Walsh’s numbers also went the wrong way after this weekend past, but he’s still exceeding expectations, reliably making big saves to help keep his team in the thick of things.

The offense has looked surprisingly flat and really dependent on one or two players to have huge nights to win them games. Keegan Bal can single-handedly win a game in a quarter for you, but Adam Charalambides isn’t close to matching his 98-point production from last season, although his shot has started to finally fall. Jonathan Peshko continues to impress me every time he steps onto the turf, and I’m confident his game will only get better and better. There are knowns on this offense and unknowns that have high floors and ceilings; I’m sure Curt Malawsky and Bob McMahon will get them producing at the level they want and expect, but there’s no denying the desired results aren’t there six games into the season.

Circling back to the Grant opener, he’s the frontrunner for Transition Player of the Year right now. Ryan Dilks is the Defender of the Year in my eyes. Absolutely unfair having those two with Brett Mydske, Matt Beers, Reid Bowering, Jeff Cornwall, and Brayden Laity in the same defensive unit.