Sound the Alarm! Overreactions from 2024-25 NLL Week 1

No better time to overreact than the present.

*Photo Credit: Greg Mason/Ottawa Black Bears*

I’m here to save you the heart attack and overreact on your behalf to the 10 NLL teams’ performances in week 1 of the 2024-25 NLL season. Stow your aspirin and pacemakers.

It’s a game for your favorite team, but if you’re a fan of the five winners, the NLL Cup is yours; conversely, losers better pack up their bags and start planning for 2025-26.

But that’s not reality. A game doesn’t dictate an entire team’s season. It’s a snapshot of what may be to come or what needs to get corrected ASAP. With that in mind, let’s look into those five games of opening weekend and “freak out” over performances (Spoiler: I don’t freak out).

All terminology, examples, and shorthand can be found here.

Black Bears Might be Good

The New York Riptide Ottawa Black Bears still haven’t won in December, but Friday’s season-opening win will have you forgetting that cherry-picked stat.

The Black Bears looked damn fine out the back door in the inaugural game of the NLL 2024-25 season, boasting the best defensive numbers last weekend at even strength and on the power play. Better to look at the Rock’s offense on Friday for worrying signs. They looked like the Toronto Rock of the 2024 NLL Semifinals. Ignoring the final frame (in which Ottawa was up 10-2 and had no need to score insurance goals), the Rock had a 32 ESLP% in three quarters, meaning a third of their settled possessions resulted in no shot being recorded. The Rock’s TrueES slash line (S%/SOG%/E%) was 3.3/53.3/2.8, and they had just 3 multiple possessions (for comparison, Ottawa’s offense on Friday had an ES slash line of 13.9/77.8/11.4 and an ESLP% of 19.5. They also had 2 MPG on 12 MP chances.).

It instantly took me back to the Rock’s 2024 postseason showing, particularly the two games against the Bandits. In the semi-finals, the Rock only scored 4 ESG and had a TrueES slash line of 4.1/60.2/3.8.

Friday night will likely not be what the Rock offense will be moving forward, but the fact the offense’s impotence was so similar to their last two games of the 2024 postseason warrants a raised eyebrow.

Friday’s performance might be the floor for the Black Bears.

Mammoth Return to Form

How was Vancouver up 6-1 at the half? I’m not asking rhetorically; rewatching that game, I honestly don’t understand how the score wasn’t in Colorado’s favor in the first 30 minutes.

The home team was dominating offensive possessions and exerting their will defensively. Holding the Warriors to just 2 ESG is a testament to the Mammoth’s bruising back end. Their biggest fault was swinging wide out the O door, as Colorado’s forwards posted an unfortunate 51.6 SOG% in the first half.

Even more damning for the home/visiting team was the Warriors couldn’t get out of their own way and get a damn offensive shift set. They had 10 failed clears in the first half — 10!, including their first three attempts of the game — and were the only team in week 1 to finish in double digits in failed clears. Those are missed opportunities the Mammoth didn’t capitalize on, but comeback victories are cooler, I guess.

Colorado really didn’t need to change much in the second half, just tighten down their shooting and stop swinging wide. Their third quarter in particular was much improved, as their collective SOG% jumped to 70.0% The Warriors did a better job getting the ball from defense to offense, but with the Mammoth continuing their game plan, the Warriors couldn’t do much to stop them, nor figure out how to solve Dillon Ward and the Mammoth D at 5-on-5.

*Photo Credit: Geovanna Soler/Albany FireWolves*

Oh Manns

Duder’s hitting 40 goals this season. His goal to open the fourth quarter created a first for me statistically — a goal scored off the draw while a team was “settled” shorthanded. But his four goals in Saturday’s win against the runner-up of last season was emblematic of a great and balanced team effort from Saskatchewan.

Looking back at the 2023-24 Rush, it was a weird season of beating up teams with sub-.500 records (they only beat one team with a winning record, the Seals on April 13). While they still technically haven’t done that yet this season, upsetting the Cinderellas of last season with a strong and controlled performance against them is a great sign that this Rush team’s legit.

It was a really even affair. Albany won the power play game (3-2), both teams netted a pair of transition markers and found the back of the net once shorthanded, and the home team scored once while 6-on-5. If you’re mathing that up, then you’ve realized the FireWolves are up 7-5 on the Rush.

What won the Rush their first game of the season was — say it with me now — their even strength performance. Parts of it were bad (and credit to the FireWolves defense), like their TrueESLP% of 35.6%, the worst of the 10 teams of opening weekend, and their TrueESSOG% of 65.7%, third worst in the NLL. Their TrueESE% of 11.1% was the fourth best of week 1.

Where the Rush really shone was defensively, though. Frank Scigliano finished the night with 31 ESSv (second best of the weekend thanks to Kells getting peppered), as he and the defense held the FireWolves to a 3.3 TrueESE%, the second worst offensive performance of week 1.

The FireWolves last season did a great job of doing enough across the floor to stack up enough goals for the win, while Doug Jamieson and the defense held opponents to the third-best GA/GAME number in 2023-24 at 10.61. But Saturday night, they didn’t do enough in one key area, and the Rush did. Simple math.

*Photo Credit: Jonathan Tenca/Rochester Knighthawks*

Desert Dogs Continuing a Worrying Trend

Feeling good about my KHawks forecast. Rylan Hartley going on the IR didn’t stop me from pulling my prediction about the Rochester Knighthawks finishing the 2024-25 NLL regular season with the best record in the league. That offense is too deep and too excellent at shooting, using their size and skills to get where they want on the floor, and extending possessions, overriding any fears about who’s in net. Defense is underrated, although they arguably didn’t push enough in transition on Saturday, 11 total FBSets compared to their opponent’s 20.

It made for a long night for Landon Kells, who’s at the top of the SA/60 stat by a comfortable margin, nearly 10 full shots more than Philadelphia’s Nick Damude.

The long night was exasperated by his offense being weak 5-on-5. The Desert Dogs finished last season with a 10.9 TrueESE% (third worst in the NLL), and Saturday saw them post a 6.5 TrueESE%. It wasn’t the worst offensive performance of the weekend (waves at the Rock), but considering this was the least productive even strength team in 2023-24, seeing that trend continue into a new season isn’t a great sign.

It’s not like Las Vegas can’t bury the ball. They’re off to a hot start on the power play (4 PPG and a TruePP slash line of 15.8/89.5/20.0) and continue to run well (4 TrueFBG and a TrueFB slash line of 23.5/76.5/20.0).

But if you’ve ready anything of mine before, you know how much stock I put into the even strength game. Vegas’s offense has finished each season with the 13th worst ESE% (9.9% in 2022-23, 10.9% in 2023-24). They can’t afford that trend to continue, and Saturday’s performance wasn’t the step in the right direction they needed to take.

Wings Versu-

No.

…no? What do you mean?

No. I’m not doing this. I’m not mining meaning out of this offensive onslaught and defensive failure from both teams.

…oh.

Twenty goals in the first half?! THERE WEREN’T 20 GOALS SCORED IN TORvsOTT OR SASvsALB OR VANvsCOL!!

Woo-sah.

This is why I typically don’t pay attention to individual game results, especially in week 1 (I know that undercuts the breakdowns of the previous four games, but I have seasons of data/recent performance to back up my intuition on those teams). Last season, NLL games averaged 23 goals per game. A combined 23 goals were scored way too early in the third quarter of Wings versus Seals.

In 2023-24, Chris Origlieri had a 9.79 GAA and .795 Sv%; Nick Damude, with Panther City, had an 11.04 GAA and .801 Sv%. Now, Origlieri’s at 17.63 GAA and .676 Sv% and Damude’s at 19.80 GAA and .691 Sv%.

The offenses were monstrous, finishing with slash lines (all shifts) of 24.2/75.8/20.5 for the Wings and 20.9/72.1/19.8 for the Seals. That’s 1 and 2 in the league in whatever order you feel like placing them, and it’s not particularly close.

Look, reading into a single game is foolhardy. I know I’ve literally done that for four sections in this article, but there are signs from those teams that say maybe we should pay a bit more attention down the line.

Damude and Origlieri were not as bad as what we saw on Sunday. The Seals defense is a monster at shot suppression, something they got back into as Sunday’s game went along. The Wings defense is the opposite of that, as they gave up the most S/GAME and SOG/GAME last season, and offseason work doesn’t suggest they’ve gotten any better. Both offenses are great on paper, but they’re not 10 GF per half in every game good.

Take that whole game with a gigantic chunk of salt, followed by a double shot of tequila and a lime wedge.