Riptide Sixes; Bold Strategy, #Don’tTradeWard
The Riptide’s 6-on-5 game has been elite of late; bet on veteran goaltenders
Photo Credit: Buffalo Bandits
I spent my last article celebrating the fact we’re out of the realm of small sample size (SSS) for the 2024 National Lacrosse League season. So in this one, it’s only fitting that I dive back into it and look at recent performances for a team and two players.
Once we get to four games played for each team, we have a 50-foot view of the league and all 15 NLL teams. It’s great for making more general statements about a squad’s performance — for example, Albany’s even strength is really good based off their (then) best ESE% on offense and fifth-best ESE% on defense. But zoom in from that 50-foot view towards recent events, and you can see trends starting to form.
That’s what we’ll cover in this article. I take a look at the Riptide’s recent success 6-on-5 and why you should be more optimistic about a pair of veteran NLL goalies. As usual, this’ll end with a power rankings that’s totally a thing that exists.
Photo Credit: Brandon Hill/New York Riptide
Riptide Sixes
No, not that Sixes. I’m talking sixes I actually care about, when the goalie runs to the bench so a sixth runner can take the floor for a 6-on-5 possession, usually to take advantage of an upcoming penalty to the opposing team, close out a quarter with the final possession, or mount a comeback when down but not out. League EAE% is 13.7%, and there have been 241 EASets for NLL offenses, 3.4% of all total offensive sets this season.
The Riptide lead the NLL in EAG with 7, 10.4% of their goal total for this season. Their EA slash line (S%/SOG%/E%) is 25.0/75.0/24.1, meaning they're capitalizing on roughly 1-in-4 EASets, almost double league average. Given they spend an NLL-leading 5.6% of their total O shifts 6-on-5, it’s pretty evident the Riptide’s plus-one game is strong. What’s notable about their success 6-on-5, though, is that it’s pretty much come just in the last two weeks.
Between contests against the Lacrosse Club and Bandits, the Riptide have 5 EAG on 11 EASOG and 13 EASets, with just 3 EALP. It’s an EA slash line of 41.7/91.7/38.5. In their four contests before that, they had just a pair of extra attacker goals in 16 EASets and a slash line of 12.5/62.5/12.5.
Opportunities have clearly been more available for New York in their last two games — being 1-3 and fearing you’ll backslide to 1-4 makes a man do crazy things (the fact it nearly worked against Panther City is a bit telling). Going from 4 EASets per game to 6.5 is a not-insignificant jump. Against Panther City, it was a last-ditch desperation ploy that didn’t pan out. Against the Bandits, it was taking advantage of upcoming Buffalo penalties and cashing in half the time.
Extra attacker goals are a bad strategy to rely on for winning games, worse for mounting comebacks — only one team this season has been successful at this, the Desert Dogs forcing overtime against Panther City for the eventual OT win. Teams that have outscored their opponents 6-on-5 over the last two seasons (177 games) win the game 37.1% of the time. There have been more games where teams score the same EAG as their opponents, 107 of them.
The Riptide have been a coin flip the last two games when winning the EA game, but that recent production boost is not worth relying on moving forward (not saying they were). It’s an interesting spike in production, similar to the Thunderbirds’ dominance in game 1 scoring goals off the draw. Expect the Riptide to come back down to Earth 6-on-5; appreciate their ascension all the same.
Photo Credit: Josh Harrison/Colorado Mammoth
Bold Strategy; #Don’tTradeWard
Goalies are weird, man.
Younger netminders are hard to project, because most take years to develop into NLL regulars, and they’re usually behind an older vet, so playing time is sparse. What we’re seeing with Brett Dobson and Chris Origlieri is the exception, very much not the rule.
Getting to be an NLL starting goalie is special and incredibly difficult. There are only 15 spots in the NLL (and that 15 is recent; it was nine my first year with the Swarm), it usually takes years to prove you belong, a teammate’s waiting to take that spot from you at a moment’s notice, and the more you play, the more the book’s out on you for the other 14 teams’ benefit.
The Warriors’ Aaron Bold and Mammoth’s Dillon Ward — 18-year and 10-year veterans, respectively — are no exceptions. Bold, 38, has his shoulders and five-hole targeted regularly. Ward, 32, plays high in his crease to shut off the options for the on-ball forward. It leaves some pretty big gaps behind him, which teams tend to target for a quick stick through those openings.
Both had rougher starts to the season, but they’re on the upswing lately.
Bold has a 10.64 GAA, .778 Sv%, and -0.90 GSAA through 343:51 min. this season. His 44-save performance in last weekend’s comeback victory against the Rush was his best game of the season by save percentage, edging out his .829 Sv% game against the Swarm.
Consistency’s been the issue for Bold, however, as we see in the above graph. He turns in one bad game only to follow it up with a great one. That said, half his losses saw him allow under 12 goals, one of those in overtime; coincidentally, the Warriors O goes quiet in those games, but it’s easier to blame the goalie than the seven forwards who aren’t putting the ball in the back of the net, I guess.
When Bold’s stopping everything like in those two wins, he’s in single digits in goals against and boasts a save percentage healthily above .800.
Let’s look at his Western Conference goalie compatriot. Coming off the PUP List to start the season, Ward has a 12.79 GAA, .763 Sv%, and -4.05 GSAA through 248:41 min.
I’m not Willy Wonka; I don’t have enough sugar or Oompa Loompas to sugarcoat how bad Ward was in his first two games of the season, in which he was noticeably hampered by a lingering injury from before the season’s start. Go back, watch him try and step left to make a stop, and tell me I’m wrong.
But I can be Dr. Feelgood, sans cocaine and bad music tastes, by pointing at his performance of late.
Ward’s GAA each game has dropped a full goal, and his Sv% has been above 79% every game, his highest mark coming in last Saturday’s upset of the Roughnecks.
GSAAs have dropped for both Bold and Ward. Ward’s have been less pronounced, dropping from -5.39 to -4.05. That makes sense given that standout trouncing at the hands of the Warriors. Bold, meanwhile, went from -3.18 to -0.90. Yes, other goalies’ weekly performances factor into a GSAA — for example, Landon Kells, who didn’t play last week, saw his GSAA increase from -3.36 to -3.71.
Despite their netminding colleagues’ performances, Bold and Ward are clearly proving they still belong in the NLL deep into their careers; recent/early performances don’t change that fact.
Just because the book’s written doesn’t mean they can’t add some more pages to their stories.
Photo Credit: Christian Bender/Toronto Rock
Power Rankings — Week 8
Friendly reminder:
An NLL season is a marathon, not a race. Placement is based on what teams show over a period of time. Just because a team completely revamped their roster in the offseason or beat a team that was above them in the rankings one week doesn’t mean they automatically jump up spots.
Records are not what I base rankings on. If a team wins 14 games to start the season and then drops the next four badly, then that recent performance will weigh more than them having the best record that season.
This is supposed to be fun. I take this mildly seriously, but it’s just, like, my opinion, man. It’s not worth getting worked up over.
“The parity in the NLL is awesome,” a media colleague of mine pontificated in a group chat. 60% of the league has a losing record, and four teams at or above .500 are on losing streaks. Those playoff spots are nowhere close to being set in stone.
My media colleague also spelled it “parody,” which was too funny to point out to him. Auto-correction defeats all; pay your editors.
15. Saskatchewan Rush (1-4)
Previous ranking: 11
Week 8 results: 11-9 loss to the Warriors
14. Vancouver Warriors (2-4)
Previous ranking: 15
Week 8 results: 11-9 win against the Rush
13. Colorado Mammoth (2-4)
Previous ranking: 13
Week 8 results: 13-10 win against the Roughnecks
12. New York Riptide (2-4)
Previous ranking: 14
Week 8 results: 15-13 win against the Bandits
11. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (2-3)
Previous ranking: 12
Week 8 results: Did not play
10. Panther City LC (2-3)
Previous ranking: 10
Week 8 results: Did not play
9. Philadelphia Wings (2-3)
Previous ranking: 9
Week 8 results: Did not play
8. Halifax Thunderbirds (2-3)
Previous ranking: 8
Week 8 results: Did not play
7. Calgary Roughnecks (2-3)
Previous ranking: 7
Week 8 results: 13-10 loss to the Mammoth
6. Rochester Knighthawks (3-2)
Previous ranking: 6
Week 8 results: Did not play
5. Buffalo Bandits (3-3)
Previous ranking: 3
Week 8 results: 15-13 loss to the Riptide
4. Georgia Swarm (4-3)
Previous ranking: 4
Week 8 results: 12-9 loss to the Rock
3. San Diego Seals (4-2)
Previous ranking: 5
Week 8 results: 14-7 win against the FireWolves
2. Albany FireWolves (6-1)
Previous ranking: 1
Week 8 results: 14-7 loss to the Seals
1. Toronto Rock (5-0)
Previous ranking: 2
Week 8 results: 12-9 win against the Swarm