Outshooting and Losing; Zero Success Settled
Looking at how often teams have a better S% and SOG% and lose the contest, as well as reviewing how often a team doesn’t find the back of the net 5-on-5
Photo Credit: WM Photography/Albany FireWolves
One of the worst things about overseeing this giant National Lacrosse League stats project is I tend to not pay attention to things I used to before I started this ordeal. From 2016 to 2022, I always knew where NLL teams were at in standings, their statistical leaders, and their recent history in regard to games played.
Last season and even more so this season, I don’t really have the vitality to pay attention. I’ve all but given up on tracking who should win MVP or any of the other NLL end of season awards, saving that for when I have energy to mull it over after May. Brad Kri’s getting DPotY just because I refuse to change that from my preseason prediction (tongue in cheek, I’ll obviously put more thought into that category and flip a coin between him, Kyle Rubisch, and Mitch de Snoo).
This weekend, it led to what I consider funny situations. I was inputting data and verifying it earlier this week, and two odd and rare stats jumped out at me in the haze of data entry. I took note of them to review later, assuming both were historic firsts since I started this project.
All that buildup means that’s not the case, but I’m loathe to let a good idea and its rarity go to waste. So, let’s examine how often a team outshoots their opponents in S% and SOG% and loses the game and how many games a team has failed to score an ESG since the pandemic.
Photo Credit: Panther City LC
Outshooting and Losing
Sunday lacrosse is becoming a staple in DFW, and the most recent Lacrosse Eucharist meant a matchup between the Wings and Panther City. The LC got the 12-10 W, and they did it in an atypical way. Panther City had a worse shooting percentage — 12.8% compared to 13.9% — and shot on goal percentage — 69.2% compared to 80.6% — than the Wings but still came out with the win.
The result’s not too surprising; the Wings defense allows the more shots and shots on goal against this season, 82.9 and 59.0, respectively, way above the next closest team in either category. PCLC loves to shoot the rock, as they’re sixth in S/GAME (77.1) and fifth in SOG/GAME (53.8). But for them to post worse percentages than their opponent in both categories and lose? “That has to be the first time that’s happened all season,” was the stupid thought running through my head.
A quick bit of research revealed teams “losing” both categories and emerging with the wins happened seven times this season, including PCLC’s most recent victory. Teams that outshoot opponents in both percentages have won 57 games this season, meaning an 89.1 W%.
Looking back to the 2022-23 season, it was 72-12, an 85.9 W% for teams topping both categories in the same game. The season prior was 86.6%, 58-9.
Perception’s a funny thing. I had a conversation over the weekend regarding my stats with an NLL team personnel where he spoke about his squad’s issues in the multiple possession game, initially ascribing blame to the offense. A quick stats review determined it was the defense that was the problem, as they allowed the most MP against; the offense was doing their job in extending possessions.
Much like my NLL colleague, I went into this research project assuming I knew what the answer was, and the data flipped me the bird and showed me how wrong I was. 120 NLL games have been played this season, and 64 of them have been determined one way or the other by a team winning/losing both statistical categories. While it’s important to do better than your opponent at certain aspects of the game — even strength, shooting percentage, empty netters — it doesn't guarantee success.
Photo Credit: WM Photography/Albany FireWolves
Zero Success Settled
The FireWolves are on a bit of a skid of late. They’ve lost their last four contests. Albany’s playoff ticket was already punched, but the team isn’t doing what it wants to be doing right now — playing its best lacrosse heading into the postseason.
There’s still plenty of time to make that happen, as they’ve two more games ahead of the first round of the postseason. But looking back at the most recent contest, there’s a glaring number blinding me every time I stare at it: The FireWolves did not score a single even strength goal against the Toronto Rock last Saturday.
That’s a giant batch of rarity. Once again, I initially thought this was the first time since I’ve started tracking NLL shift types that this hasn’t happened, oh joy of joys!
But clearly that’s not the case. In fact, it’s happened in two other occasions post-pandemic, and Albany’s name popped up in one of them. They failed to find the back of the net 5-on-5 against the Georgia Swarm in a 20-4 loss on Feb. 25, 2023. The other instance also came in the same season, as the Saskatchewan Rush couldn’t get the settled job done settled against the Calgary Roughnecks in a 14-6 loss on March 25, 2023.
That got me wondering how often teams score a single ESG in a game and the final result. It happens rarely enough that I could easily compile the list:
Panther City LC in a 14-8 loss to the Vancouver Warriors on Dec. 10, 2021
Calgary Roughnecks in a 9-4 loss to the San Diego Seals on March 4, 2022
Vancouver Warriors in a 14-5 loss to the Toronto Rock on March 12, 2022
Las Vegas Desert Dogs in a 9-3 loss to Panther City LC on Dec. 16, 2022
San Diego Seals in a 16-11 loss to the Saskatchewan Rush on Feb. 17, 2023
Colorado Mammoth in a 13-7 loss to Panther City LC on Feb. 18, 2023
Albany FireWolves in a 12-6 loss to the Toronto Rock on March 11, 2023
Panther City LC in a 9-8 win against the Vancouver Warriors on April 15, 2023
Las Vegas Desert Dogs in a 14-4 loss to the San Diego Seals on April 22, 2023
Saskatchewan Rush in a 17-12 loss to the Halifax Thunderbirds on December 1, 2023
San Diego Seals in a 10-8 loss to the Las Vegas Desert Dogs on January 12, 2024
Albany FireWolves in a 14-7 loss to the San Diego Seals on January 20, 2024
Georgia Swarm in a 13-8 loss to the Philadelphia Wings on March 16, 2024
Las Vegas Desert Dogs in a 12-9 loss to the Vancouver Warriors on March 30, 2024
Hopefully, you caught the exception to the rule. Over the past three seasons, only PCLC has eeked out a win while scoring just a single ESG, and they did it against an expansion club.
Panther City’s name bemusingly popped up pretty evenly in this recent record book. They’ve lost and won a game in which they only potted 1 ESG and have held opponents to just a single ESG twice.
More evidence for me that PCLC is the most befuddling team in the NLL. The more things change, the more they stay the same.