No Honey on the Stinger
Looking at the numbers behind the Swarm power play going from atrocious to bombastic over the last four games
Photo Credit: Albany FireWolves
It’s been a consistently inconsistent 2024-25 NLL season so far for the Georgia Swarm. Win four, lose three, add a one to both columns, tack on a pair of W’s, then drop another trio — it maths up to a 7-7 record and questions about why this team isn’t having the success it desires.
They’re not the only team to go through struggles — I literally wrote about the Wings last week and the Desert Dogs a few weeks back (do I only write about negative things?) — and it’s not just one thing in particular for the men in blue and yellow. The offense has gone through cold stretches at times, and the defense has struggled on nights when the offense is doing its job. The transition game has been hit more than miss, but those quiet stretches are pretty loud and noticeable.
But one area has really stood out as lackluster lately before finding success in their recent loss, akin to a dormant volcano finally erupting — their power play. For a team that’s been pretty consistent (not overwhelming) with their 5-on-5 scoring and defense and adding in timely transition markers, their 5-on-4/3 was deathly silent for three games until their five-spot against the Warriors (a game they lost in part because they also gave up five power play goals to the Warriors). The Swarm were 1-2 during that sans-PPG stretch, and considering they were outscored by just four goals in those three games, chipping in on special teams could have been the difference maker that changed those losses to dubs.
Before that slate started on Feb. 28, the Swarm were below average with the man-advantage. By traditional power play metrics, they were 18-41, a 43.9 PP% that is about in line with the average success rate in the NLL on the power play. Looking at my stats, they had 109 power play shifts — settled (104) and transition (5) — and posted a TruePP slash line of 17.1/73.3/16.5 and a 14.7 TruePPLP% (12.5 PPLP%). Again, that’s worse than league average by a bit — 17.9/70.5/18.6 and 12.6%. But a bit worse isn’t a problem as long as it’s still getting the job done and the Swarm continued taking care of business even strength.
But I’m here writing this and you’re here reading this because that’s not the case, and a lack of power play success was a significant factor in their recent undoing. Against the Black Bears, Rush, and FireWolves this past month, the Swarm were 0-10 on the power play — you can do that math in your head, I believe in you. It lowered their season power play success rate to 35.3%.
But 0-fer on ten penalty opportunities doesn’t appropriately convey how bad the Swarm were man-up. In that three-game stretch, the Swarm had 33 power play shifts, 31 traditional and two in transition. They were still receiving the same amount of opportunities they’d enjoyed up to that point in the season, 11.0 TruePPSets per game compared to 10.9. But their shooting got worse, evidenced by the zeros in the S% and E% categories and a 75.0 SOG%. Worse was how the LP% for 5-on-4 shifts jumped from 12.5% to 19.4%, meaning nearly a fifth of the Swarm’s traditional power play sets resulted in no shot being recorded at all.
Photo Credit: Kyle Hess/Georgia Swarm
Is there a specific reason for the Swarm’s lack of success on the power play for three games?
I made the comment to Rush play-by-play broadcaster Cody Janzen on the postgame show of the Rush Hour Podcast following the Swarm’s 8-7 loss to the Rush that I thought the Swarm power play started that game flat and stagnant. They set up shop in their traditional 5-on-4 pentagon, swung the ball around the horn a bit, and either didn’t challenge Frank Scigliano well or went for the tried-and-true quick stick from Shayne Jackson or Miles Thompson. It wasn’t working — bobbled passes and searching for the perfect shot meant the Rush were always in position to make the shooters’ jobs harder. As the game went along, the Swarm employed different sets, moved players around positionally, got more physical with picks to create openings, but Scigliano was on one, and the power play was unsuccessful in their brief amount of chances.
That soda-left-open-too-long style of power play was something that the Swarm were doing before that Rush game. It was part of the reason why they were unsuccessful against the Black Bears the week before; that said, Ottawa boasts the best penalty kill unit in the game, and the Swarm wasted nearly half of their chances by not recording a shot at all. The bobbles and cherry-picking were exceptionally bad in that game, and it fortunately didn’t matter as the Swarm won that game handily.
Photo Credit: Ottawa Black Bears
Georgia ran into another hot goaltender in Doug Jamieson when they took on the FireWolves. Despite numerous opportunities, the Swarm’s 17 shots, 12 on target, couldn’t solve the Dougie riddle that night. The Swarm were constantly employing new tactics while man-up, different plays to manufacture whatever chances they could. It didn’t work, and the more it didn’t work, the more the issues compounded, a pressure cooker for the team desparate for a PPG and coming up empty.
The stress and tension was apparent in their first power play against the Warriors, a penalty-filled game because nothing gets the fans going like consistent stoppages in play as the referees won’t let the boys play and we get to see players in timeout, super fun. Georgia looked like they were back to juggling and like they ran into another hot goaltender. But Jackson’s quick stick in the dying seconds of a pretty much broken power play shift finally snapped the schnide.
Sometimes, that’s all it takes, get one in, doesn’t have to be pretty, and something clicks for the team — sports are mental like that. It was a 5-9 night for the Swarm (55.6%) that raised their season success rate up three percentage points, posting a TruePP slash line of 16.1/74.2/19.2.
That’s probably the best answer. Issues the Swarm experienced all season long with players not connecting as expected on passes and searching for the perfect shot like a desperately single individual at 2 am on Tinder finally reared their head for the worst stretch of the Swarm’s season. Employing new tactics didn’t work as they searched for answers, and the lack of success caused grips to be tighter and shots to be forced.
Sometimes it’s as simple as you ran into a string of hot goalies. Sometimes it’s as simple as you’re making it worse for yourself. From Feb. 28 to March 15, it was a little bit of both for Georgia.