MacLeod-y with a Chance of Goals
Cam MacLeod is off to a Jekyll & Hyde start to the season, but his game is a mirror of the Roughnecks’ own issues
Photo Credit: Calgary Roughnecks/NLL
Quick aside to kick things off: Puns are hard and sometimes (re: mostly) dumb. Going with “MacLeod-y with a chance of saves” would imply the Roughnecks starting netminder Cam MacLeod isn’t making that many saves, which is a bit rude. “Chance of goals” feels nicer — and more accurate — but this might be the last time I reference the underrated movie that is Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs. Now for what really matters:
Despite starting off 2-1, the Calgary Roughnecks have not looked like the best team in the NLL in their wins. They needed offensive heroics in their two wins, overcoming MacLeod being pulled from net in the first half of both games. Hell, he was pulled twice in the season opener and still ended up with the win — your friendly reminder the win/loss stat for goalies is dumb.
Any fan paying attention can tell that MacLeod is cirrus in the first half before getting pulled. Locker room adjustments at halftime change his basic form, becoming cumulus in the Roughnecks’ comeback successes and attempt.
But seeing the actual data is interesting, so let’s take a look at his splits between the first half and second half. All the data that follows will be from just when he’s in net; anything that happens with Colby Bowman isn’t as interesting considering the 22-year-old only has 17:43 min. of NLL action under his belt, a sample size so small it’s practically an ice crystal.
Photo Credit: Calgary Roughnecks/NLL
In first halves, MacLeod has played a combined 72:17 min., almost five quarters worth of game. For second halves in the Roughnecks first three games, he’s at 90:19 min. It’s clear to anyone paying attention that his second-half performances are better than his first-half efforts. How stark is the difference?
Stark.
1st and 2nd Halves - Comparison
As we can clearly see, MacLeod’s first-half netminding is…high—higher…what? Hold up…something’s wrong…
<furious calculating noises, pulling out of hair, screaming at spreadsheets>
Oh! There’s the problem. That’s not MacLeod’s goaltending stats comparing his first and second halves. That’s the combined Thunderbirds, FireWolves, and Warriors goaltending half comparisons when MacLeod is also on the floor. Silly me.
Young Cam’s numbers are below.
MacLeod 1st and 2nd Halves - Comparison
That’s better. Much better.
Or worse, if you’re the Roughnecks’ starting netminder in the first half. MacLeod didn’t play the full first 30 minutes of a game until game 3, where he was on the hook for every goal against except for the Warriors’ empty netter. Getting pulled doesn’t really get him in the right form if he’s placed back between the pipes before the first half ends. Whatever secret words Roughnecks head coach Josh Sanderson bequeaths upon MacLeod in the locker room have had quite the positive effect on his second-half performances.
League average for total save percentage is .785. For TrueES, it’s .800; TruePP is .766; and TrueFb is .731 (I don’t really care about shorthanded shifts for a team with only three games played and am not considering them in this exercise). The 25-year-old is clearly well below league average in each category in first halves, but in second halves, he gets much closer to the average NLL save percentage even strength (.771, six percentage points higher than his first half save percentage) and better than average while on the penalty kill and in transition, .833 and .750, respectively.
But that apparent accidental inclusion of opposing netminder numbers was no mishap. Box lacrosse is a team effort, and Sanderson’s locker room speeches have done more than turn MacLeod’s performance around in the final 30 minutes of games.
Everything Mashed Together
The Roughnecks offense are also night and day, Jekyll and Hyde, sun and moon, cirrus and cumulus in their production between halves. They’re getting stonewalled whenever MacLeod is between the pipes in quarters one and two, but that flip switches and they strike oil in the third and fourth frames.
And let’s not forget about the Roughnecks defense, as well. Yes, MacLeod plays better after halftime, but so does the defense in front of him. At even strength, the number of ESSets per 30 min. are similar. They spend more time settled than on the penalty kill — 76 TrueESSets compared to 11 TruePPSets — in second halves, and that team effort to stay out of the box helps immensely. In the combined first half, the defense spends 21.6% of its total shifts on the penalty kill and have five times as many power play goals against as they do in the combined back halves, and that’s despite the almost 20 minute time difference.
So if your defense is spending less time playing 5-on-4 and performs better 5-on-5 (and 4-on-4) AND the offense starts getting their shots to drop, it all adds up to better results. Harrowing, last-minute, Heraculean-efforted results, but a 2-1 record, nontheless.
It’s certainly easier to look at one position on the floor — especially one as important and obvious as goalie — and scream “There’s the problem!”, but it’s not fair (and lazy). Cam MacLeod is playing what has been Roughneck ball in their first three games of the season: Start off not, end the thing hot. At 2-1, they’re in a decent spot early in the season, but playoff teams play a full 60 minutes. If the Roughnecks stretch that final 30 minutes of every game into a full 60, then watch out.
| TrueES Sv% | TruePP Sv% | TrueFB Sv% | Total Sv% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
MacLeod 1st Half
| .711 |
.750 |
.583 |
.684 |
|
| MacLeod 2nd Half | .771 | .833 | .750 | .784 |
| Opp. Goalie 1st Half | .815 | .750 | 1.000 | .788 |
| Opp. Goalie 2nd Half | .740 | .563 | .750 | .714 |
| NLL Numbers | .800 | .766 | .731 | .785 |