Goalies Are Weird, Man
Call it a Walsh; absence makes the Hart grow fonder; ORig-ging the game
Photo Credit: Jordan Leigh/Vancouver Warriors
Goalies are weird, man.
Anyone that willingly elects to stand in front of the likes of Dhane Smith, Lyle Thompson, Wes Berg, Ryan Lee, [pick a forward’s name out of a hat] and let them throw a hard rubber ball at them at dangerous velocities has a few screws loose up top, but that’s low-hanging fruit to pick when talking about goalies’ eccentricities. Higher up the boughs is how much being a goalie is a mental game. They develop differently — it’s never a gradual rise, more of a sudden jump to the highest echelons or lowest valleys; anyone projecting what a goalie will be during their formative years might as well be a snakeoil salesman. Netminders have a way of affecting their team’s mental performance, as well, and I don’t mean systematically.
We’ve seen cases of this when a backup comes into net after the starter gets chased. The defense in front tends to clean up their mistakes they were making in front of their other teammate and play better for a spell. But that’s an article for a different time.
This article is about netminders this 2024-25 NLL season who have affected their squad’s results beyond just standing in the cage, two with offenses playing better and another that isn’t rising with the rest of the team’s elevation thanks to a certain forward.
Photo Credit: Philadelphia Wings
Call It a Walsh
I’m prefacing this part with this: If you have the opportunity to add arguably the best goaltender in the NLL currently to your team and have the assets to reasonably swing that trade, you do it 100% of the time, no matter your record or how your current goalie is playing. Warriors general manager and head coach Curt Malawsky absolutely did the right thing acquiring Christian Del Bianco (for a reasonable price, too, despite the “future considerations” part not being public yet).
A few weeks back, a media colleague of mine said during Delbs’ first game for the Warriors that he was making saves that my colleague didn’t think Aden Walsh would make. It irked me, a lot, an opinion that can’t be proven beyond “Trust me, bro” that ignores how well Walsh played for the Warriors. Walsh to that point was one of the best netminders statistically in the NLL this season. It was a complete turnaround from his rough first year as the starting netminder for the Warriors, as he had a 9.95 GAA, .791 Sv%, and 7.41 GSAA in 699:43 min.
The Warriors record before acquiring Del Bianco was 6-7, and something needed to change to help the team make the postseason. That change should have been out the front door, because Vancouver’s offense has struggled all season long. But there wasn’t a street free agent better than anyone Malawsky had in the lineup, and acquisition costs for forwards from teams that were selling ahead of the March 10 trade deadline were, per usual, unreasonable and frankly wouldn’t fit the system Malawsky has.
Goaltending wins championships, and if a former MVP goalie in his prime wants to play for his home team and is available, you add and hope the offense figures it out. Fortunately for Malawsky, that’s exactly what happened. Del Bianco busted out the gates by holding the Rock to single digits, allowed 13 against the Swarm, held the Bandits to just 12 (“just” 12) in Banditland, and wrapped up week 19 by keeping the FireWolves to four goals. He faces more shots against per 60 minutes (SA/60) than Walsh (51.50 compared to Walsh’s 47.68), makes impossible saves in key moments, and has been arguably the best NLL netminder the past month with his 9.25 GAA, .820 Sv%, and 8.41 GSAA in 240:00 min.
GSAA moves whether you play a weekend or not; Walsh’s has dropped to 6.57, which is still in the top 7 of all netminders in the NLL and right behind the guy who supplanted him.
Circling back to my earlier “irks me” comment, the reason I take umbrage at the remark is because Walsh wasn’t the Warriors problem; it was the offense. Everything I said Del Bianco was doing Walsh was also doing. The Warriors averaged 10.2 GF/GAME. Their 9.4 TrueESE% (61 ESG, or 5.1 ESG/GAME) and 17.0 TruePPE% (16 PPG, 1.3 PPG/GAME) were well below league average, with the even strength number being the worst in the NLL. The team ran — and continues to run — well and was good shorthanded, but the bulk of their settled and special teams shifts weren’t as successful as they needed to be.
When the team acquired Del Bianco, the offense realized, “Oh shit, we can play good,” and has been very solid. In four games with Del Bianco watching on the other end of the floor, the Warriors have averaged 12.8 GF/GAME, a TrueESE% of 15.1 (29 ESG, 7.3 ESG/GAME), and a TruePPE% of 21.7% (10 PPG, 2.5 PPG/GAME).
I’m sure there’s a sports psychology reason for a team playing better in front of one goaltender — O Brother, Where Art Thou? voice: “Mamma says that he’s bonafide.” — instead of another goalie that’s played very, very well for them. And it’s hard to deny the results of the Del Bianco era of the Warriors. Maybe I’m reading too much into the comment my colleague made about Walsh (I’m not), but it seems disrespectful and dismissive of how well Walsh, a 25-year-old in his second season as a starter, had played for the Warriors this season. Not his fault the offense couldn’t do their job.
Photo Credit: Rochester Knighthawks
Absence Makes the Hart Grow Fonder
There’s this idea I ascribe to that players shouldn’t lose their position due to injuries. When Rylan Hartley was placed on the Injured Reserve list ahead of the 2024-25 regular season, it meant that Riley Hutchcraft would man the uprights until his return. That was always understood, and given Hutchcraft’s 12.81 GAA, .758 Sv%, and -18.67 GSAA last season, the hope was Hartley returned sooner than later and the Knighthawks could tread water defensively with Hutchcraft between the pipes.
But Hutchcraft was much better than expected. He had an 11.42 GAA, .791 Sv%, and 5.10 GSAA in 488:40 min. before Hartley’s return. Knighthawks head coach Mike Hasen heaped praise on Hutchcraft’s efforts that season following their win against the Swarm, commending his netminder’s play that the rest of the team was trying to match early in the season. The 27-year-old took the lessons learned in the 2023-24 season and used them to develop into a bonafide (“Mamma says”) National Lacrosse League starter — again, goalies develop weird, and it’s foolhardy trying to project what they can be.
Hutchcraft provided a solid enough case for breaking the rule about taking a job from an injured player, but when Hartley was activated, Hutchcraft remained the poster child for being a Big Team Guy, as Hartley got the starting role moving forward. Hutchcraft continued to make the most of his opportunities subbing in, like when he backstopped the Knighthawks in the win against the Desert Dogs.
Again, hard to argue with the results. The Knighthawks are 7-1 in Hartley’s return, but it’s definitely more a result of the offense being the unit I thought they were preseason and the defense playing better in front of him. Hartley has a 10.76 GAA, .778 Sv%, and -0.49 GSAA in 418:22 min.
Rochester has posted a SA/60 of 48.47 with him in net, a 53.81 SA/60 for Hutchcraft. The offense’s production before and after Hartley’s return has been striking, as well:
Pre-Hartley
100 goals in 9 GP (11.1 GF/GAME), 11.8 TrueESE% (56 ESG, 6.5 /GAME), 14.5 TruePPE% (16 PPG, 1.8 /GAME), 15.6 TrueFBE% (19 FBG, 2.1 /GAME), 7.7 TrueSHE% (4 SHG, 0.4 /GAME)
Post-Hartley
118 goals in 8 GP (14.8 GF/GAME), 15.3 TrueESE% (64 ESG, 8.0 /GAME), 24.0 TruePPE% (25 PPG, 3.1 /GAME), 22.3 TrueFBE% (21 FBG, 2.6 /GAME), 5.7 SH (2 SHG, 0.3 /GAME)
I’d like to imagine the Knighthawks offense is finding the level they were always capable of playing at and finally delivering the way they should have been all season long; it seems to be irrespective of who’s in front of the net, as their 21-spot against the Desert Dogs was with Hutchcraft between the pipes for most of that game. But as much as I hate falling into the correlation-equals-causation trap, it’s hard to deny the Knighthawks O plays better when Ralphy’s manning the uprights.
Photo Credit: San Diego Seals
ORig-ging the Game
Last Friday, Pat Gregoire, famous for having the best hair in the NLL media landscape and nothing else at all, nope, not a thing, invited me on for a Twitter Spaces rendition of OTCB Podcast (I’m not linking to Twitter (also refuse to call it by that other much dumber name); if you want to listen, go search for OTCB_Podcast and give it a listen (it’s split into two Spaces because Twitter’s functionality has gotten even worse since I quit posting anything but articles there)). We talked about the Wings and Swarm game I’d be covering in person on Saturday and the Seals and Thunderbirds game he’d be doing colour for.
One topic we touched on was the Seals’ turnaround and the biggest cause for it— Wes Berg, easy peasy. He got back to his MVP form against the Rock, going from 3.63 PTS/GAME to 6.9 PTS/GAME (before the game against the Thunderbirds last weekend). A second important reason was Chris Origlieri settling down between the pipes and being steadier despite still having a rougher season statistically.
Greggy brought up a good point during the discussion. From the eye test standpoint and his opinion, Origlieri was playing really well and didn’t appear to be in a slump in his second season as a full-time starting netminder, but when he went to look at the stats, he was surprised by what he saw — an 11.51 GAA, .769 Sv%, -6.73 GSAA. That last number was particularly alarming, as it would have been one of the five lowest in the NLL (it’s gotten worse following the loss to the Thunderbirds, dropping to -8.80, the third worst mark and only ahead of Cam MacLeod (-11.96) and Landon Kells (-20.98)). What gives? What are the stats saying that clashes with the eye test?
For the record, I agree with Greggy’s eye test. Origlieri has looked very solid more often than not when between the pipes for San Diego, but that overshadows his really poor performances this season, and those are weighing heavily on his stats.
Through the Seals loss to the Rush, Origlieri had an 11.26 GAA and .764 Sv%. His save percentage rollercoastered during that time, .676 in the season opener to peaks of .878 against the Black Bears before dropping back down to the .690’s. Volatility between the pipes resulting in getting chased from it means GSAA suffers, and Origlieri getting yanked against Philly and Sask has weighted heavily upon his season stats, even now.
During Berg’s rising-tide-lifts-all-ships phase, the young netminder’s GAA went up to 11.78, but his save percentage became more consistent at .775.He hasn’t gotten above .800 — reached it against the Warriors — and hasn’t faltered below .750 during the last eight games. While the rest of the team has seemed to elevate their play with Berg’s ascendance, Origlieri’s not necessarily done the same, but he’s also not all over the place like he was in the first half of the season.
I wish I’d touched on this more during my conversation with Greggy, but the Seals have one of the best shot suppression defensive units in the NLL. Their 68.13 SA/GAME is the lowest in the NLL by two full shots, their 49.88 SOGA/GAME is the fourth best number in that statistical category, and no team prevents less opposing multiple possessions than the Seals. Defensive coordinator Cam Woods does a fine job with that defense that doesn’t get the shine it deserves.
But them performing well is being undercut by Origlieri’s slumping season. He’s been more consistent of late but still not at the level the Seals need to win more often and convincingly. If the offense runs into a tougher defense — like the Thunderbirds last weekend — then the Seals unfortunately have to rely on a young goalie in a bit of a decline in his fourth NLL season.