Fiery CinderPups — The Stats Behind Albany’s 5-0 Start
Looking at the FireWolves’ blazing best start in franchise history ahead of their strongest matchup yet in the Swarm
Photo Credit: WM Photography/Albany FireWolves
I give up. They’re 5-0; time to talk about the Albany FireWolves and work in as many fire-based puns concerning their name as I can. Already used CinderPups, so it’s only going to go downhill in quality from here, and I will be insufferable in making these puns work.
Anyone that tells you they knew the FireWolves would start the season 5-0 is a liar. Even the most optimistic of prognosticators wouldn’t imagine a team that was 3-15 last season would somehow not only flip the script but the entire studio on its head in their undefeated quintet gauntlet.
The best part of the Ignited Inus is just how much fun they are to watch. It’s an offense filled with players too young to know any better, creatively finding new ways to punish goalies, never running the same play twice. The defense is strong in front of Doug Jamieson, and they love to push the tempo.
When people spoke about this team preseason, it was along the lines of, “They’re going to be better than last season and really strong two or three seasons down the line.” The future is now, old man. Let’s find out why.
Photo Credit: WM Photography/Albany FireWolves
Offense
Only one team team is better 5-on-5 this season than the Pyre Pooches, but the Seals have only played three games (this was written before Friday’s contest against the Desert Dogs, and I’m too lazy to update it to reflect the Seals’ loss), one of which they only scored nine goals in. Albany hasn’t scored less than 11 goals in a game this season. They average 9.0 TrueESG/GAME and have a +19 TrueES goal differential. Their TrueES slash line (S%/SOG%/E%) is 17.9/70.5/15.6, all well above league average, with the S% and E% second best in the NLL (behind Calgary with an 18.7 TrueESS% and 16.1 TrueESE% — bet you didn’t see that coming).
Two of their forwards are in the top 4 in NLL scoring — rookie Alex Simmons (15G, 17A) and breakout candidate Ethan Walker (11G, 19A). Bump that to top 25 NLL players in scoring, and they boast a rookie who can’t spell his first name right in Tye Kurtz (7G, 16A), Travis Longboat (7G, 16A), and Sam Firth (6G, 12A) joining Simmons and Walker to make up 20% of the top NLL scorers. Marshall Powless — who has impressed me to no end this season with his subtle creativity, shot, and off-ball work — is surprisingly outside that top 25, but just barely with 17 points (6G, 11A).
It’s an incredible turnaround from the league’s worst offense last season. In 2022-23, the Blazing Beagles had 31 ESG through their first five games, a 15.6/66.8/13.0 ES slash line, and 2-3 record. Things went downhill from there, as they went 1-12 the rest of the season for a final ES slash line of 12.7/69.8/10.6. They averaged 5.6 ESG/GAME and had a -42 ES goal differential.
They’ve yet to outscore an opponent on the power play — more on that later — and aren’t blowing opponents out of the water in transition. But if you’ve read anything I’ve ever written, you know even strength is what I consider the best indicator of a team’s performance and continued success. The FireWolves spend 64.9% of their offense’s time settled, fourth most in the NLL and 2.2% above league average. Those four teams ahead of them all have worse ESE%. Sure, Albany has more games played than their colleagues, but they’re consistently overperforming 5-on-5 compared to the settled juggernauts of the NLL.
But this is only half of the equation, which means it’s time to dive into the defensive side of things.
Photo Credit: WM Photography/Albany FireWolves
Defense
The FireWolves really missed Joe Nardella last season, both at the face-off dot and defensively.
The Rutgers alum only played in one game last season before suffering an injury at a Team USA event and missing the rest of the 2022-23 NLL season. With him out of the lineup, they were 135-447 at the face-off dot (30.2%) and only won the face-off game once in his absence, March 18 against the Riptide. The Searing Shelties lost that game.
This season, Nardella has taken all but six draws and has gone 89-134 (66.4%). Albany’s 4-0 when he wins the face-off game and 5-0 with him in the lineup, because Nardella isn’t a FOGO; he’s a solid defender that takes draws.
But winning draws and capitalizing on them are entirely different things, and the only team better at making that first post-face-off shift matter than the FireWolves is the Thunderbirds, who Albany just beat. The FireWolves have scored 13 goals (9FOESG, 4 FOFBG) off of Nardella’s draws, meaning the team capitalizes on 14.6% of his wins. Again, the only team better at this is the Thunderbirds, but a lot of that came in their win against the Rush.
I’ve waxed poetic about face-offs for longer than I’m comfortable. Let’s look at the rest of the defense, starting with Doug Jamieson between the pipes.
Jamieson started the season rough, with an 11.50 GAA, .753 Sv%, and -1.43 GSAA through his first two games. He may have gotten the wins, but his offense bailed him out. Since then, the 27-year-old hasn’t recorded less than 40 saves in a game, nor posted a save percentage under .800. His best performance came against the Thunderbirds, as he made 48 saves for an .828 Sv%. His GSAA has rocketed positively, as he now has a 4.69 GSAA, the third best in the NLL behind Brett Dobson (8.36) and Nick Rose (8.22) (again, this was written pre-NLL Week 7).
Dougie’s in a groove, as is the rest of the Phlogiston Pomeranians. The defense averages 10.6 GA/GAME, third best in the NLL. Settled, they’re holding opponents to just 26 TrueES goals (5.2 TrueESG/GAME), meaning roughly half of the goals scored against them aren’t coming from 5-on-5, where the Magma Malamutes spend 56.7% of their shifts.
They’re the epitome of my ideology, “He who wins the even strength game rules the world.” 5-on-5 is where the bulk of the game is played, and the Tinder Terriers do most of their damage out both doors while settled. Small wonder they’re 5-0.
Power Puff Unit
There’s no more glaring a weakness in the FireWolves’ game than their pitiful power play. It’s — politely — abysmal, yet somehow on brand for them.
Through their first five games of the 2022-23 season, the Heated Havaneses (Havanesi?) scored 5 PPG on 43 PPSets (5-on-4 and transition), an 11.6 TruePPE%. They had a -2 PP goal differential in that quintet of games. Just 5-on-4, they had a slash line of 11.5/62.8/12.5 and didn’t record a shot on 10% of their possessions.
In 2023-4, it’s not any better. Hell, it’s worse. The Char Chihuahuas have a -5 PP goal differential, a 7.7 TruePPE%, and a PP slash line of 7.9/71.4/7.7, with an LP% that jumped up almost four percentage points. All of those numbers may have come in the same amount of games, but the shifts aren’t the same. The Spark Shih Tzus have 65 PPSets, 51.2% more sets than last season.
Even if you look at traditional power play numbers, it isn’t any rosier for the FireWolves. League average PP% is 42.98%, and Albany’s in dead last at 19.2%. The next worst team is the Mammoth at 25.0%, but they’ve nearly as many PPG in three games as the FireWolves have in five. Albany’s getting more chances to punish opponents sent to the box and aren’t capitalizing.
I’m reminded of a conversation then-Swarm offensive coordinator Dan Ladouceur (now the Riptide head coach) and I had after the Swarm’s 6-0 finish to the 2017-18 season despite a power play that was in the 30% range. They weren’t as strong an offense as the record-setting one from 2017, but it was still a great offense despite their power play woes. “Blessing and a curse,” Ladouceur aptly put it, and I’m of the same mind with the FireWolves. They're outside the realm of small sample size, so what we’re seeing is what they are. Despite this noticeable weakness, there’s no denying their overall game is working.
Imagine if their power play unit got close to league average (18.2 PPE%). They’d truly be a monster.
Photo Credit: Heather Barry/Philadelphia Wings
Power Rankings — Week 6
Friendly reminder:
An NLL season is a marathon, not a race. Placement is based on what teams show over a period of time. Just because a team completely revamped their roster in the offseason or beat a team that was above them in the rankings one week doesn’t mean they automatically jump up spots.
Records are not what I base rankings on. If a team wins 14 games to start the season and then drops the next four badly, then that recent performance will weigh more than them having the best record that season.
This is supposed to be fun. I take this mildly seriously, but it’s just, like, my opinion, man. It’s not worth getting worked up over.
Two quick notes: 1) I wrote this before Friday’s games. Nothing I saw in TORvsHFX changed my opinions, SDvsLV did change my opinions on those two clubs, but I need to see the other five games tonight before I go shifting anyone around. I’m leaving those four teams’ records as is. 2) I’m a little inclined to explain my reasoning behind some of the moves/non-moves in my power rankings this week. Bear with these explanations:
Most teams didn’t move, and not because most teams didn’t play. Teams that lost typically had teams below them lose last weekend. I’m not bumping the Thunderbirds down for that reason; every team below them that wasn’t named the Riptide lost, so Halifax floats along.
Typically, I don’t think I’d swap the Bandits and Swarm given where I had the Bandits at the start of the season and how the Swarm have risen. Probably should have had the Swarm ahead of the Bandits last week, but I wanted to see one more game for each club before I made any such movement. After that pair, man, I dunno. I just like what the Swarm are doing better right now, especially the defense and Brett Dobson. Going with my gut, which is only wrong on days ending in a “y.”
Finally, and probably most importantly, I truly appreciate what Albany is doing, their 5-0 record, their strong offense and defense — hell, did you not see everything I just wrote? I still think the Rock are the most complete team in the NLL, and that’s without Tom Schreiber in the lineup. I’m not basing the ranking on what’s not in their lineup, though. I thought the Rock were arguably the best team heading into the season (Bandits were ranked first, but I tend to rank the defending champs tops until they give me reason not to). Nothing I’ve seen in their three games has changed my mind.
15. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (1-3)
Previous ranking: 14
Week 6 results: Did not play
14. New York Riptide (1-3)
Previous ranking: 15
Week 6 results: 16-9 win against the Wings
13. Vancouver Warriors (1-3)
Previous ranking: 13
Week 6 results: Did not play
12. Saskatchewan Rush (1-3)
Previous ranking: 12
Week 6 results: Did not play
11. Panther City LC (1-3)
Previous ranking: 11
Week 6 results: 12-10 loss to the Swarm
10. Colorado Mammoth (1-3)
Previous ranking: 10
Week 6 results: 12-8 loss to the Bandits
9. Calgary Roughnecks (1-2)
Previous ranking: 9
Week 6 results: Did not play
8. Philadelphia Wings (2-3)
Previous ranking: 18
Week 6 results: 16-9 loss to the Riptide
7. Halifax Thunderbirds (2-2)
Previous ranking: 7
Week 6 results: 12-10 loss to the FireWolves
6. Rochester Knighthawks (3-1)
Previous ranking: 7
Week 6 results: Did not play
5. Buffalo Bandits (2-2)
Previous ranking: 4
Week 6 results: 12-8 win against the Mammoth
4. Georgia Swarm (4-1)
Previous ranking: 5
Week 6 results: 12-10 win against Panther City
3. San Diego Seals (2-1)
Previous ranking: 3
Week 6 results: Did not play
2. Albany FireWolves (5-0)
Previous ranking: 2
Week 6 results: 12-10 win against the Thunderbirds
1. Toronto Rock (3-0)
Previous ranking: 1
Week 6 results: Did not play