A Riptide Resurgence; An Atypical Swarm Win
The stats behind the Riptide’s comeback and an out-of-character Swarm game
Photo Credit: New York Riptide
My giant stats project is great for seeing how National Lacrosse League teams do throughout a season, what trends form, their strengths and weaknesses, and comparing all 15 teams to one another at different facets of the game. A non-public part of the NLL stats I keep is how teams perform in each individual quarter.
Box lacrosse games aren’t always straightforward; rarely is how a team performs in the opening frame how they’ll play throughout the next three frames. Teams adjust. Last week’s New York Riptide come-from-behind win against the San Diego Seals is a great example of that.
So, let’s dive into that Riptide comeback. We’ll also take a look at how the Swarm won a game that spit in the face of their typical gameplan. Power Rankings no one wanted or asked for? I’ve got it at the end!
Photo Credit: New York Riptide
A Riptide Resurgence
Yeah, the Riptide came back in the second half after being down 7-2 at halftime to win 10-8, but how they did it is wild.
Setting the scene — the Seals allowed two transition goals against in the first 30 minutes of action, Mitch Wilde and Jeff Teat’s markers. That means for the rest of their offensive sets, the Riptide were serving up Montreal bagels in anticipation of their game in the City of 100 Steeples. Zero-for-22 on ESSets, nada-por-nada on the power play, zilch across the board while unsettled and extra attacker, and just 2-8 on FBSets, a 25.0 E%.
The Seals potted seven goals, 4 ESG (they didn’t score a 5-on-5 goal until the second quarter), 2 PPG, and 1 FBG. If you thought the game was half buried into the grave at that point, you weren’t alone.
Coming back from 7-2 when the visiting club has dominated the ES game? Some would pack it in at half, start a scrap late in the third/early in the fourth to give the fans their ticket’s worth, begin looking ahead at the next game.
The Riptide instead did their best Undertaker impression with an auto-reverse, bodying the Seals in the second half. The Seals got an even strength goal midway through the third quarter, Austin Staats’ hat trick. But that would be all she wrote for the Seals offense. Cam Dunkerley and the Riptide defense held them to a collective (all set types) 3.7/77.1/2.8 slash line over the back half of the contest, meaning 26 of Dunkerley’s <gasping> 57 saves came in the second half. The Seals had a LP% of 11.1%, suggesting they were working late into clocks before getting a shot off and the Riptide were controlling possession.
That’s not just me hazarding a guess. The Riptide dominated possession in the final 30 minutes. The Seals had 36 combined sets compared to the the Riptide’s 40. In the first half, that ratio was 51:33. In that swing, the Riptide finally got on the 5-on-5 board thanks to Connor Kearnan, using a balanced Cerberus of ES-PP-FB to claw back into things and defend home turf.
New York went from a first-half cumulative O slash line of 10.0/66.7/6.1 to a second-half cumulative O slash line of 32.0/65.88/20.0.
It was a complete turnaround across the floor for Dan Ladouceur’s club. The Riptide found the afterburners were just the actual burners and lit that shit.
Photo Credit: Micheline Veluvolu/Rochester Knighthawks
An Atypical Swarm Win
All of the Swarm’s wins in 2022-23 saw them post positive goal differentials in the ES game, their closest contest being a +3 ES goal differential win against the FireWolves on March 4.
In 2021-22, the Swarm “lost” the even strength game in two wins, both by a goal, a 14-13 (9-10 ESG) win against Albany on Feb. 4, 2022 and a 10-9 (6-7 ESG) win against the Thunderbirds on March 12 of the same year. Out of 21 wins the last two-and-a-half seasons, the Swarm have an ES goal differential of +65. That differential is -86 in their losses.
Typically, the Swarm dominate 5-on-5, chipping in on the power play and in transition to get the win. Last Saturday, they did the exact opposite of that against the Knighthawks.
Rochester won the even strength game 9-4. And while they scored a trio of power play goals, they were handled everywhere else.
The Swarm netted four PPG, found the back of the net in transition three times, potted the rock on an unsettled play, scored a shorty in transition just for good measure, then tacked on an empty netter for giggles. Math it up, and it resulted in a 14-12 road win despite getting dominated at their bread and butter, 5-on-5.
Usually when you get the Swarm off their even strength game, they struggle. Their lowest percentage of ESSets in 2022-23 was against the FireWolves on March 4, 2023, where the Swarm spent just 53.1% of their total offensive shifts settled — their average for the season was 66.4%, matched by the Knighthawks and behind the Wings at 68.8%.
This season, the Swarm offense plays 5-on-5 for 67.3% of their shifts, behind only the Riptide offense (69.5%). Their worst settled performance was when they were blown out 14-3 even strength against the Warriors on Dec. 16, 2023, a game where they were 5-on-5 for 62.5% of their total offensive shifts. After that was the loss against the FireWolves on Jan. 13, 2024, where they lost the ES game 7-3 and just barely spent half their time 5-on-5 (50.7%).
For the Swarm to have a game where only 53.7% of their offensive sets were even strength, they were outscored significantly 5-on-5, and they still got the win is pure Storming.
Photo Credit: James Bennett/Halifax Thunderbirds
Power Rankings — Week 11
Friendly reminder:
An NLL season is a marathon, not a race. Placement is based on what teams show over a period of time. Just because a team completely revamped their roster in the offseason or beat a team that was above them in the rankings one week doesn’t mean they automatically jump up spots.
Records are not what I base rankings on. If a team wins 14 games to start the season and then drops the next four badly, then that recent performance will weigh more than them having the best record that season.
This is supposed to be fun. I take this mildly seriously, but it’s just, like, my opinion, man. It’s not worth getting worked up over.
People that hazard power rankings are low key the worst. Here’s mine!
15. Vancouver Warriors (2-6)
Previous ranking: 15
Week 11 results: 13-9 loss to the Rush
14. Philadelphia Wings (2-5)
Previous ranking: 14
Week 11 results: Did not play
13. Colorado Mammoth (2-6)
Previous ranking: 12
Week 11 results: 14-13 OT loss to Panther City
12. Rochester Knighthawks (3-5)
Previous ranking: 10
Week 11 results: 14-12 loss to the Swarm
11. Saskatchewan Rush (3-4)
Previous ranking: 13
Week 11 results: 13-9 win against the Warriors
10. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (3-5)
Previous ranking: 11
Week 11 results: 12-10 loss to the Thunderbirds
9. Panther City LC (4-4)
Previous ranking: 9
Week 11 results: 14-13 OT win against the Mammoth
8. Calgary Roughneckss (3-5)
Previous ranking: 8
Week 11 results: 11-10 win against the Rock
7. New York Riptide (5-4)
Previous ranking: 17
Week 11 results: 10-8 win against the Seals
6. Halifax Thunderbirds (5-3)
Previous ranking: 6
Week 11 results: 12-10 win against the Desert Dogs
5. Buffalo Bandits (5-3)
Previous ranking: 5
Week 11 results: Did not play
4. Georgia Swarm (6-4)
Previous ranking: 4
Week 11 results: 14-12 win against the Knighthawks
3. Albany FireWolves (6-2)
Previous ranking: 3
Week 11 results: Did not play
2. San Diego Seals (6-3)
Previous ranking: 2
Week 11 results: 10-8 loss to the Riptide
1. Toronto Rock (6-2)
Previous ranking: 1
Week 11 results: 11-10 loss to the Roughnecks